In The Loop - Take 21: GLP-1 Drugs-A Game Changer Moment for Stocks?

Stock Talk

In this episode, we delve into the recent strategic moves I've made in my portfolio, which may have caught some by surprise but are rooted in my reading of evolving market dynamics. Here’s a breakdown of the latest decisions: exited positions in Costco with a 17% gain, Empire at break-even, Walmart with a 17.5% gain, Target at a -2% loss, and iShares Pharma at a loss of 3.6%. These are substantial moves that weren’t initially on my agenda. It’s important to note that these decisions weren’t based on the underlying fundamentals or valuations of these companies – which I continue to appreciate. The catalyst was rather a growing sense of a short-term negative game-changer moment on the horizon. I've previously discussed the potential impact of Ozempic, and more broadly, the GLP-1 family of drugs, on sectors beyond healthcare due to their potential in reducing obesity and promoting weight loss. This thread pulls at the fabric of various industries: The potential societal disruption is enormous, and while the world buzzes about AI and ChatGPT, this healthcare evolution could be a parallel narrative growing in significance. Reflecting on my portfolio, the decent returns already achieved were near my threshold of satisfaction. The decision to secure these profits and transition to lower risk, chunky yield options seemed a prudent move amidst the growing narrative. The key takeaway here is that admiring a company doesn't always equate to liking its stock at a given moment. While I have a positive outlook on COST and WMT, the short-term negative sentiment driving down stock values led me to bank the profits and await a more opportune entry point. Concerns loom around the long-term impacts of these drugs, creating a potential false sense of security leading to overeating, and the unknown side effects that could emerge over time. The play moving forward hinges on the momentum GLP-1 drugs gain. If this narrative unfolds akin to how AI captured market attention, it could depress stock values in the short term. This scenario presents an opportunity to re-enter at a more favorable price point. If it doesn’t pan out, the gains locked in provide a cushion to strategize for another day, especially with external market pressures like high valuation, sustained high rates, inflation, a potential hard landing, and geopolitical tensions looming large.