Andy Constan: The Bond Market Will Take The Stock Market Down With It

Forward Guidance

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:16) The Script

(02:49) Andy's Current View: Bearish On Stocks And Bonds, Bullish on Two-Year Notes

(04:17) Bond Market Might Be Underpricing The Chance Of A Recession

(07:29) Treasury Plumbing (Quarterly Refunding Announcement)

(13:10) At What Point Will Buyers Return To The Treasury Market?

(17:13) VaEck Ad

(18:15) How To Trade Something That Has So Many Drivers (Such As S&P 500)

(22:35) Stock Bond Correlation

(30:17) May Fed Meeting

(31:36) Odds That The Fed Hikes In 2024 (Rather Than Cuts)

(33:28) Andy Likes Two Year Notes Even Though He Thinks The Fed Could Not Cut At All This Year

(34:59) Andy Gets In-The-Weeds On Options-Implied Path of Fed Policy

(39:05) What Would It Take For Andy To Become Bullish On Stocks?

(41:24) Gold's Sudden Rise

(44:53) The Japanese Yen

(46:54) The Pressures On Interest Rates Will Emanate From The United States

(47:37) Chinese Equity Market

(49:35) Fed's Decision To Taper Quantitative Tightening (QT)

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.