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Alfonso Peccatiello: The Fed Put Is Back, Bull Steepener Base Case

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Manage episode 417310416 series 3300108
Contenido proporcionado por Blockworks. Todo el contenido del podcast, incluidos episodios, gráficos y descripciones de podcast, lo carga y proporciona directamente Blockworks o su socio de plataforma de podcast. Si cree que alguien está utilizando su trabajo protegido por derechos de autor sin su permiso, puede seguir el proceso descrito aquí https://es.player.fm/legal.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck.

Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG.

VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus.

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Follow Alf on Twitter https://twitter.com/MacroAlf

Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us

Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:24) Debt Service Ratio In U.S. Means Higher Interest Rates Haven't Caused Interest Expense To Skyrocket

(02:37) The "Higher Interest Rates Are Stimulative" Argument Has Gone War Too Far

(06:45) Outside Of The U.S., Higher Interest Rates Already HAVE Had A Big Effect

(08:46) Private Debt, Not Public Debt, Is The Cause Of Most Modern Financial Crises

(11:23) Eurozone Countries Can't Print Their Own Currency The Way A Monetary Sovereign Can

(14:04) Is Government Deficit The Surplus Of The Private Sector?

(21:43) VanEck ad

(22:50) Making Money And Being Right Are Often Different Things

(25:13) Is Private Sector Investment "Crowded Out" By Government Borrowing?

(26:51) The Four Factors That Impact Interest Rate Sensitivity Of An Economy

(29:53) U.S. Recession Risk Is Underpriced By Interest Rate Futures Market

(32:28) If Nominal GDP Comes In Below Consensus, Stocks Could Rally (Rather Than Sell-off)

(37:16) Macro Carry Strategies

(42:52) The Case For A Bull Steepener (Short-Term Yields Fall More Than Long-Term Yields)

(44:45) Weighing Probabilities Of Soft Landing vs. Recession vs. No Landing

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

  continue reading

388 episodios

Artwork
iconCompartir
 
Manage episode 417310416 series 3300108
Contenido proporcionado por Blockworks. Todo el contenido del podcast, incluidos episodios, gráficos y descripciones de podcast, lo carga y proporciona directamente Blockworks o su socio de plataforma de podcast. Si cree que alguien está utilizando su trabajo protegido por derechos de autor sin su permiso, puede seguir el proceso descrito aquí https://es.player.fm/legal.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck.

Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG.

VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus.

__

Follow Alf on Twitter https://twitter.com/MacroAlf

Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us

Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

__

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:24) Debt Service Ratio In U.S. Means Higher Interest Rates Haven't Caused Interest Expense To Skyrocket

(02:37) The "Higher Interest Rates Are Stimulative" Argument Has Gone War Too Far

(06:45) Outside Of The U.S., Higher Interest Rates Already HAVE Had A Big Effect

(08:46) Private Debt, Not Public Debt, Is The Cause Of Most Modern Financial Crises

(11:23) Eurozone Countries Can't Print Their Own Currency The Way A Monetary Sovereign Can

(14:04) Is Government Deficit The Surplus Of The Private Sector?

(21:43) VanEck ad

(22:50) Making Money And Being Right Are Often Different Things

(25:13) Is Private Sector Investment "Crowded Out" By Government Borrowing?

(26:51) The Four Factors That Impact Interest Rate Sensitivity Of An Economy

(29:53) U.S. Recession Risk Is Underpriced By Interest Rate Futures Market

(32:28) If Nominal GDP Comes In Below Consensus, Stocks Could Rally (Rather Than Sell-off)

(37:16) Macro Carry Strategies

(42:52) The Case For A Bull Steepener (Short-Term Yields Fall More Than Long-Term Yields)

(44:45) Weighing Probabilities Of Soft Landing vs. Recession vs. No Landing

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

  continue reading

388 episodios

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