Macro Mondays | LIVE | Market Jitters and Election Betting | 14|10|24

World of Oil Derivatives

This week, James Brodie and James Todd dive into the latest developments in the global economy, inflation, and U.S. politics. They begin by exploring weak Chinese economic data and discuss how China's worsening deflationary environment and a disappointing stimulus package announcement could impact global markets.

They break down the latest U.S. inflation figures, with the CPI falling to 2.4% YoY but exceeding expectations. They also analyse insights from the recent FED minutes and comments from Goldman Sachs, discussing the Fed’s outlook on inflation and the rate cut trajectory priced by the OIS and bond markets.

James Brodie and James Todd address the oil market's high volatility, fuelled by rising Middle East tensions and the Pentagon’s recent announcement of military support for Israel against Iranian threats.

In the second half of the episode, Onyx Head of Recruitment, Matt Aspin, joins to provide insights into the upcoming U.S. election. Matt delves into the latest polls and betting odds, revealing a tight race, with Harris leading in polls but Trump ahead in betting odds. Matt draws comparisons to the 2016 election and assesses the accuracy of these predictions and what they could mean for the 2024 race.