E99: This Era’s Inflection Points With Byrne Hobart | DOGE, Elon, OpenAI "Upstream" With Erik Torenberg podcast

1:23:35

This week on Upstream, we’re releasing an episode of The Cognitive Revolution. Nathan Labenz interviews Helen Toner, director at CSET, about her experiences with OpenAI, the concept of adaptation buffers for AI integration, and AI's role in military decision-making. They discuss the implications of AI development, the need for regulatory policies, and the geopolitical dynamics involving AI competition with China. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️ The Cognitive Revolution The Cognitive Revolution is a podcast about AI where hosts Nathan Labenz and Erik Torenberg interview the builders on the edge of AI and explore the dramatic shift it will unlock over the next decades. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6yHyok3M3BjqzR0VB5MSyk?si=7357ec31ac424043&nd=1&dlsi=060a53f1d7be47ad Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-cognitive-revolution-ai-builders-researchers-and/id1669813431 — SPONSORS: ☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at https://oracle.com/turpentine 🕵️‍♂️ Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Helen Toner's appearance on the TED AI show: https://www.ted.com/talks/the_ted_ai_show_what_really_went_down_at_openai_and_the_future_of_regulation_w_helen_toner Helen Toner's substack : https://helentoner.substack.com/ Additional recommended reads: https://helentoner.substack.com/p/nonproliferation-is-the-wrong-approach https://cset.georgetown.edu/publication/ai-for-military-decision-making/ https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/ai-regulation-s-champions-can-seize-common-ground-or-be-swept-aside https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2024/05/26/ai-firms-mustnt-govern-themselves-say-ex-members-of-openais-board — X / TWITTER: @hlntnr @labenz @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: Helen Toner joined OpenAI's board in 2021, bringing AI policy expertise when AGI discussions were still uncommon. She confirms that rumors about QStar contributing to the board's decision to fire Sam Altman were completely false. Helen observes contradictions at OpenAI: safety-focused research papers alongside aggressive policy positions. For AI whistleblowers, she recommends clear disclosure standards rather than vague reporting guidelines. Helen introduced the concept of "adaptation buffers," noting that while frontier AI development gets more expensive, capabilities become cheaper to replicate once achieved. Rather than focusing on non-proliferation, Helen advocates using adaptation time to build societal resilience (like improving outbreak detection). She favors conditional slowdowns (based on risk mitigation) rather than arbitrary pauses or compute limits. For military AI applications, Helen's research identifies three key considerations: scope (how tightly bound the system is), data quality, and human-machine interaction design. Helen expresses skepticism about "AI war simulations," arguing military contexts have too many unknowns to be modeled like games. She suggests the shift in AI CEOs' rhetoric about China competition is "the path of least resistance" to argue against regulation. Helen acknowledges the difficulty of reaching stable international equilibrium around AI development with too many unknowns about what superintelligence would mean for political systems.…

"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

1
E136: Trump V2: Tariffs, American Dynamism, Higher Ed | Byrne Hobart 1:05:37

hace 5 días1:05:37

1:05:37

In this episode, Erik Torenberg and Byrne Hobart discuss the economic consequences of Trump's tariffs, OpenAI's recent innovations, and their implications for white collar work. They also explore the potential market shifts, the resilience of the US dollar as a reserve currency, and the state of elite higher education institutions like Harvard in the current geopolitical climate. — 📰Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️Investor and writer of the popular newsletter The Diff, Byrne Hobart, and co-host Erik Torenberg discuss today’s major inflection points in technology, business, and markets – and help listeners build a diversified portfolio of trends and ideas for the future. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-riff-with-byrne-hobart-and-erik-torenberg/id1716646486 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6rANlV54GCARLgMOtpkzKt YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRiffPodcast — SPONSORS: ☁️Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at https://oracle.com/turpentine 🕵️‍♂️Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co — X / TWITTER: @byrnehobart @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: Trump's tariff decision was spontaneous, causing market volatility and creating an incentive for China to negatively influence U.S. markets. Tariffs are inherently inflationary, functioning as a tax that results in higher consumer prices. Moving manufacturing away from China creates inefficiencies but provides strategic security by reducing dependency. The U.S. should focus on strategic manufacturing in areas like drones and rare earth processing. China has demographic disadvantages ("getting old before getting rich") that weaken its long-term position. OpenAI's memory feature creates user lock-in by personalizing responses based on user history. White-collar workers may face employment disruption similar to what blue-collar workers experienced with automation. The U.S. dollar's reserve currency status has a self-healing characteristic - crises often lead to increased dollar demand rather than abandonment.…

"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

1
E135: The Problem With Reserve Currencies and Switching to Crypto w/ Lyn Alden [From the Archives] 1:01:19

hace 8 días1:01:19

1:01:19

This week on Upstream, we’re sharing Erik Torenberg’s 2024 interview with Lyn Alden. Lyn discusses her book 'Broken Money', the impact of the global reserve currency, inflation, interest rates, and provides advice for navigating an uncertain economic future. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess — SPONSORS: ☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at https://oracle.com/turpentine 🕵️‍♂️ Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Broken Money: https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Money-Financial-System-Failing/dp/B0CG8985FR Lyn’s website: https://www.lynalden.com/ — X / TWITTER: @LynAldenContact @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: Lyn explains her book "Broken Money" provides a comprehensive global view of the 160 different currencies and monetary systems worldwide. She argues all monetary systems are essentially "ledger money" rather than just commodity or credit money. Lyn emphasizes how technology permanently shapes monetary systems, a perspective underexplored in academia. The telegraph was a crucial turning point, allowing information to move at the speed of light and shifting power toward centralized banks. Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies enable peer-to-peer value transfer without centralized institutions. Crypto continues to challenge currency monopolies by letting people circumvent capital controls and save in alternatives to local currencies. The US dollar's reserve status creates structural trade deficits and contributes to deindustrialization. Reshoring manufacturing remains difficult while maintaining reserve currency status. Raising interest rates to combat inflation has become less effective as higher rates increase government interest expenses. With high debt-to-GDP ratios, fiscal deficits drive money supply growth more than bank lending. Future inflation depends on technological growth rates relative to money supply growth. Lyn advises owning real, scarce assets rather than treasury bonds. She warns that fighting technological disruption ultimately proves ineffective for governments.…

"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

1
E134: Atheism’s Decline, Consciousness, and The New Right w/ Ross Douthat 58:48

hace 12 días58:48

58:48

Today on Upstream, Ross Douthat joins Erik Torenberg to discuss his new book 'Believe: Why Everyone Should Be Religious,' exploring the decline of new atheism, the intellectual defense of institutional religion, and the intersection between traditional Christianity, Silicon Valley, and modern materialism. This episode originally aired on Moment of Zen (April 12, 2025). — 📰Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️Moment of Zen Every week, Erik Torenberg, Dan Romero, Antonio Garcia Martinez and frequent special guests discuss what's happening in technology, business, politics, and beyond. Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/15KYOzvDzAQvqX0z0SpHEJ Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/moment-of-zen/id1661672738 — SPONSORS: ☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at https://oracle.com/turpentine 🎯 Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit https://adquick.com/ to start reaching your customers in the real world. 🕵️‍♂️ Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Ross Douthat: https://www.nytimes.com/column/ross-douthat Believe: Why Everyone Should Be Religious: https://www.zondervan.com/p/believe/ — X / TWITTER: @DouthatNYT @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: Ross explains we're at a cultural inflection point where secularization has plateaued and there's evidence of religious revival. New atheism has declined as the world hasn't become more reasonable despite becoming less religious. Ross argues religion is intellectually defensible based on fine-tuning of the universe and the hard problem of consciousness. He contends that merely appreciating religion's social benefits isn't enough—genuine belief is necessary. The AI discussion explores whether consciousness might exist beyond materialist explanations. They examine tensions in the "New Right" between tech-optimists and religious traditionalists.…

"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

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E133: China’s Energy Problem w/ Samo Burja 58:49

hace 14 días58:49

58:49

Today on Upstream, we’re releasing a 2024 conversation between Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja. They discuss China's approach to energy security, exploring why China isn't pursuing energy independence despite significant oil production capability and the potential for further development. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️Live Players Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg provide analysis of the news and case studies of Live Players, as well as key institutions and technologies that make up the global power landscape. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/live-players-with-samo-burja-and-erik-torenberg/id1718925188 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5fbMTkHBnom1JIBWYNVBK1?si=01ed191c74264f55 Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@LivePlayerswithSamoBurja — SPONSORS: ☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at https://oracle.com/turpentine 🎯 Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit https://adquick.com/ to start reaching your customers in the real world. 🕵️‍♂️ Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Bismark Analysis: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/ China Isn’t Pursuing Energy Independence: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/p/china-isnt-pursuing-energy-independence — X / TWITTER: @samoburja @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia…

"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

1
E132: AI Managers, US vs China Analysis, and AI Art w/ Byrne Hobart 53:18

hace 20 días53:18

53:18

Today on Upstream, we’re sharing an episode of The Riff (originally aired on April 1, 2025). Erik Torenberg and Byrne Hobart explore the shifting dynamics of global trade between China and the US, the potential for AI to replace senior rather than junior roles in the workplace, and the economic structure of live entertainment markets like StubHub. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️Investor and writer of the popular newsletter The Diff, Byrne Hobart, and co-host Erik Torenberg discuss today’s major inflection points in technology, business, and markets – and help listeners build a diversified portfolio of trends and ideas for the future. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-riff-with-byrne-hobart-and-erik-torenberg/id1716646486 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6rANlV54GCARLgMOtpkzKt YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRiffPodcast — SPONSORS: ☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at https://oracle.com/turpentine 🎯 Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit https://adquick.com/ to start reaching your customers in the real world. 🕵️‍♂️ Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co — X / TWITTER: @byrnehobart @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: US-China Trade Relations: There's an interesting role reversal where China is now championing free trade while the US has become more protectionist. China's Economic Challenges: Demographics are a crucial factor affecting China's economy - an aging population creates financial imbalances. AI's Impact on Work Hierarchy: Contrary to common assumptions, AI might replace senior rather than junior roles. While AI isn't a perfect substitute for mentorship, it provides "synthetic wisdom" without requiring equity stakes. StubHub and Pricing Dynamics: Entertainment businesses operate as "stacks of monopolies" (artists, venues) monetizing layers of perfect competition. AI-Generated Art ("Ghibli-fication"): The massive popularity of Studio Ghibli-style AI image generation demonstrated unexpected demand for AI services.…

"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

1
E131: Abundance Agenda, The New Right, and 2008 Retrospective w/ Noah Smith 1:09:57

hace 22 días1:09:57

1:09:57

Today on Upstream, Erik Torenberg and Noah Smith discuss the Abundance Agenda by Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson, the impact of the 2008 recession, Obama's presidency, and shifts in political ideology, focusing on the 'New Right' and its cultural and economic implications, while also touching upon the economic recovery strategies post-2008. This episode originally aired on Econ102 (April 1, 2025) — 📰Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️Econ102 with Noah Smith Keeping econ entertaining - Noahpinion author Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg break down business news and politics every week. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1696419056 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6q7Gn5lP8TTtBPuV1NJSGs Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@ECON102Podcast — SPONSORS: ☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at https://oracle.com/turpentine 🎯Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit https://adquick.com/ to start reaching your customers in the real world. 🕵️‍♂️Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ Abundance (by Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson): https://www.amazon.com/Abundance-Progress-Takes-Ezra-Klein/dp/1668023482 The Clash of Civilizations (by Samuel Huntington): https://www.amazon.com/Clash-Civilizations-Remaking-World-Order/dp/1451628978 Revolt of the Public (by Martin Gurri): https://www.amazon.com/Revolt-Public-Crisis-Authority-Millennium/dp/1732265143 Understanding America's New Right: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/understanding-americas-new-right American Factory: https://www.netflix.com/title/81090071 — X / TWITTER: @Noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: The "abundance agenda" is gaining unexpected traction among Democrats who see it as a unifying message rather than class warfare. Noah views the abundance agenda as appealing because it promises prosperity for all Americans regardless of political beliefs. Noah considers Obama underrated, highlighting his stimulus package, Dodd-Frank regulations, Iraq War withdrawal, and Obamacare. Obama's immigration policy focused on deporting criminal elements, reducing the illegal immigrant population by about a million. The 2008 financial crisis was a "liquidity preference shock" where fear caused everyone to hold cash rather than spend. During demand-side crises, the government acts as "spender of last resort" to jumpstart economic activity. Infrastructure spending during the Obama era wasn't efficient, creating problems for future building initiatives. Post-2008 policies increased US debt from 60% to 100% of GDP during Obama's administration. Higher inflation under Biden has actually decreased the debt-to-GDP ratio despite increased spending. The "new right" ideology focuses on "Western civilization" - not racial nationalism but reverence for traditional European/Christian heritage. New right politicians like JD Vance care more about "meme wars" and online status than practical policy solutions. Social media has empowered a small percentage of politically active "shouting class" with outsized influence.…

"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

1
E130: Elon Musk’s Network Effects and Checking in on Chinese AI w/ Byrne Hobart 1:02:20

hace 27 días1:02:20

1:02:20

This week on Upstream, we're releasing an episode of The Riff (originally aired on March 25, 2025) where Erik Torenberg and Byrne Hobart discuss Don Jr.'s leveraging of the Trump brand, Dustin Moskovitz's departure to address AI risks, economic impacts of various policies, and geopolitical considerations with a focus on AI and China's tech ambitions. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️ Investor and writer of the popular newsletter The Diff, Byrne Hobart, and co-host Erik Torenberg discuss today’s major inflection points in technology, business, and markets – and help listeners build a diversified portfolio of trends and ideas for the future. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-riff-with-byrne-hobart-and-erik-torenberg/id1716646486 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6rANlV54GCARLgMOtpkzKt YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRiffPodcast — SPONSORS: ☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at https://oracle.com/turpentine 🎯 Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit https://adquick.com/ to start reaching your customers in the real world. 🕵️‍♂️ Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co — X / TWITTER: @byrnehobart @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: Political Brand Leveraging & Business: Byrne discussed how Donald Trump Jr. is leveraging the Trump brand, noting this follows a pattern where relatives of politicians often engage in business dealings that trade on political connections. High-Stakes Career Choices: They analyzed Dustin Moskovitz's departure from Asana, suggesting it may be motivated by existential AI concerns. Existential Risk Perspectives: Byrne distinguished between "hot apocalypse" scenarios (like nuclear war) and "cold apocalypse" scenarios where societal function gradually deteriorates. Twitter/X and Elon Musk: They discussed how Musk has managed to technically restore Twitter's valuation through financial engineering and leveraging connections between his companies. Economic Policy and Tariffs: Extensive discussion of Trump's tariff strategy as a negotiation tactic rather than a permanent policy. Recession Concerns: Byrne explained how markets anticipate economic changes before they appear in employment data, creating apparent disconnects between Wall Street and Main Street indicators.…

"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

1
E129: Dark Triad, Romantic Partner Selection, and Dating Advice w/ Rob Henderson 1:05:20

hace 29 días1:05:20

1:05:20

Today on Upstream, Erik Torenberg interviews author Rob Henderson about modern romance, discussing evolutionary psychology, the attraction to dark triad men, dating apps, and practical advice for men seeking romantic partners. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse — SPONSORS: ☁️Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at https://oracle.com/turpentine 🎯 Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit https://adquick.com/ to start reaching your customers in the real world. 🕵️‍♂️ Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Why (Some) Women are Attracted to Violent Men: https://www.robkhenderson.com/p/why-some-women-are-attracted-to-violent How to Choose a Romantic Partner: https://www.robkhenderson.com/p/how-to-choose-a-romantic-partner Richard Wrangham’s The Goodness Paradox: https://www.amazon.com/Goodness-Paradox-Relationship-Violence-Evolution/dp/1101870907 Frans de Waal’s writings: https://www.goodreads.com/author/list/112082.Frans_de_Waal David Gilmore’s Manhood in the Making: https://www.amazon.com/Manhood-Making-Cultural-Concepts-Masculinity/dp/0300050763 Neil Strauss’ The Game (Pickup Artists): https://www.amazon.com/Game-Penetrating-Secret-Society-Artists/dp/0060554738 The Social Dimension of Sex: https://www.amazon.com/Social-Dimension-Sex-Roy-Baumeister/dp/0205324428 — X / TWITTER: @robkhenderson @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: Evolutionary theory suggests some women may be drawn to men with dark triad personality traits (narcissism, psychopathy, Machiavellianism) as a protective mechanism. Men who achieve high status among other men tend to also attract women. Pickup artist culture evolved from self-improvement advice to more pessimistic "black pill" incel communities. Basic improvements for men seeking relationships include grooming, fitness, career advancement, and creating a comfortable living space. Research shows the strongest correlations between couples are in education, intelligence, political beliefs, and religion. The effectiveness of showing vulnerability depends on how you're already perceived socially. There's a significant lack of relationship guidance for young people compared to abundant career advice. Dating preferences show more variety than expected, suggesting more opportunities than pessimistic views indicate.…

"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

1
E128: US-Europe Relations, How Japan Can Strengthen The Yen, and Predicting AI’s Growth Effects w/ Noah Smith 55:36

hace 5 weeks55:36

55:36

Today on Upstream, Erik Torenberg and Noah Smith analyze America's European withdrawal, China's selective globalization strategy, and tempers expectations about AI's economic impact while considering GDP measurement challenges. — 📰Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️Moment of Zen Every week, Erik Torenbergand frequent special guests discuss what's happening in technology, business, politics, and beyond. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/15KYOzvDzAQvqX0z0SpHEJ Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/moment-of-zen/id1661672738 — SPONSORS: ☁️Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at https://oracle.com/turpentine 🎯Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit https://adquick.com/ to start reaching your customers in the real world. 🕵️‍♂️Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE: Weeb Economy: https://bookplus.nikkei.com/atcl/catalog/25/03/02/01880/ I have written a book!: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/i-have-written-a-book Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ — X / TWITTER: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: U.S.-Europe Relations & Geopolitical Shifts: Examines the U.S. shift away from supporting Europe, debating whether it was exploited or harming its own interests, with Trump’s strength-focused foreign policy potentially pivoting toward Russia, risking economic and intelligence ties with Europe. China's Economic Strategy & Globalization: The Belt and Road Initiative has largely failed, with poorly executed projects and unsustainable debt burdens for recipient countries. India's Industrialization & Economic Future: India needs a major shift in labor dynamics, particularly increasing women's participation in factory work. AI, Economic Growth & the O-Ring Theory: AI’s impact on economic growth is debated—some expect 10% growth, while Noah sees 5% as more realistic. Japan’s Economy & Currency Strength: Japan should push for a new Plaza Accord with the U.S. to strengthen the yen. AI’s Impact on Jobs & Productivity: AI is unlikely to eliminate all jobs but will require major adjustments in industries and legal structures.…

"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

1
E127: The Tech Right and How The Left Can Fix Itself w/ Jon Askonas 48:10

hace 5 weeks48:10

48:10

Today on Upstream, we’re airing Erik Torenberg’s conversation with Jon Askonas. They explore the emerging coalition between MAGA supporters and Silicon Valley tech leaders, examines the underlying political realignment, the tensions and fault lines within this coalition, and the potential future conflicts surrounding issues like immigration and transhumanism. This episode originally aired on Moment Zen (February 22, 2025) — 📰Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️Moment of Zen Every week, Erik Torenbergand frequent special guests discuss what's happening in technology, business, politics, and beyond. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/15KYOzvDzAQvqX0z0SpHEJ Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/moment-of-zen/id1661672738 — SPONSORS: ☁️Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at https://oracle.com/turpentine 🎯Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit https://adquick.com/ to start reaching your customers in the real world. 🕵️‍♂️Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Ezra Klein on Supply-side Progressivism, Polarization, and What Silicon Valley Misses About Politics: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l1vBO8SYvto The Future of Crypto with Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CQdaQr3EW8g Tech for Trump: https://www.city-journal.org/article/tech-for-trump The New Control Society: https://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/the-new-control-society — X / TWITTER: @JonAskonas @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: Silicon Valley has experienced a significant shift away from Democrats, visually demonstrated by tech CEOs like Nadella, Pichai, Bezos, and Zuckerberg attending Trump's inauguration. The tech elite was historically one of the most entrenched parts of the Democratic coalition from the Clinton era through the Obama administration. COVID enabled tech to be publicly anti-left due to perceived governance incompetence, with figures like Mike Solana leading criticism of San Francisco's policies. Brian Armstrong's "no politics at Coinbase" stance marked a controversial turning point, though it wasn't explicitly right-wing. The new right coalition consists of three pillars: the Tech Right (elite talent and donors), MAGA (America First policies), and MAHA (Make America Healthy Again). What unites this coalition is an "existential fight with the Cathedral" - targeting establishment institutions rather than protecting existing systems. Immigration represents a major fault line, with tech generally being pro-immigration while the MAGA base is restrictionist. Transhumanism and biotechnology create tension between tech enthusiasm for innovation versus MAGA/MAHA skepticism about "messing with natural biology." Democrats are struggling with post-election analysis, focusing on messaging rather than substance. Trump's approach differs from previous Republicans by focusing on destroying rather than reforming institutions. Many of Trump's most controversial positions were actually Democratic positions in the 1990s.…

"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

1
E126: Data Center Economics and AI Energy Requirements w/ Patrick McKenzie and Azeem Azhar 1:17:05

hace 6 weeks1:17:05

1:17:05

Today on Upstream, we’re releasing Patrick MacKenzie's interview with Azeem Azhar which originally aired in February 2025 on Complex Systems . They discuss the economics and infrastructure of data centers, comparing historical infrastructure rollouts to modern AI-driven data center needs, and explore the implications of exponential power demands, including innovations like small modular nuclear reactors and geothermal energy. — 📰Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) talks to experts who understand the complicated but not unknowable systems we rely on. You might be surprised at how quickly Patrick and his guests can put you in the top 1% of understanding for stock trading, tech hiring, and more. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Mos4VE3figVXleHDqfXOH Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/complex-systems-with-patrick-mckenzie-patio11/id1753399812 — SPONSORS: ☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at oracle.com/turpentine 🎯 Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit adquick.com to start reaching your customers in the real world. 🕵️‍♂️ Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Exponential View: https://www.exponentialview.co/ OpenAI Hails $500 Billion Stargate Plan: 'More Compute Leads to Better Models': https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp500-nasdaq-live-01-22-2025/card/openai-to-release-new-gpt-model-ai-agents-soon-MrUYupSuChEdJh07oIWp Byrne Hobart’s ‘Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnatiom’: https://www.amazon.com/Boom-Bubbles-Stagnation-Byrne-Hobart/dp/1953953476 Inside the World's Largest AI Supercluster xAI Colossus: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jf8EPSBZU7Y&t=142s Leopold Aschenbrenner’s SITUATIONAL AWARENESS: The Decade Ahead: https://situational-awareness.ai/ Dave Kasten’s The Essay Meta: https://davekasten.substack.com/p/welcome-to-the-essay-meta Travis Dauwalter’s Complex Systems episode: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/electricity-grids-travis-dauwalter/ Austin Vernon (Fracking) Complex Systems: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/fracking-austin-vernon/ Project InnerSpace Resources: https://projectinnerspace.org/resources/ Bloom Filters Explained: https://systemdesign.one/bloom-filters-explained/ — X / TWITTER: @azeem @patio11 @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia…

"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

1
E125: Palantir’s Politics, Elon’s Approach to DOGE, and AI’s Effects on Writing w/ Byrne Hobart 58:51

hace 6 weeks58:51

58:51

Today on Upstream, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg dive into the wide-ranging effects of technological change on media and society. They cover the AI debate, blogging's social impact, AI's influence on search and data, the changing news industry, foreign aid cuts, and the rise of new tech elites. This episode originally aired on The Riff (March 11, 2025). — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️Investor and writer of the popular newsletter The Diff, Byrne Hobart, and co-host Erik Torenberg discuss today’s major inflection points in technology, business, and markets – and help listeners build a diversified portfolio of trends and ideas for the future. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-riff-with-byrne-hobart-and-erik-torenberg/id1716646486 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6rANlV54GCARLgMOtpkzKt YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRiffPodcast — SPONSORS: ☁️Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at oracle.com/turpentine 🎯Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit adquick.com to start reaching your customers in the real world. 🕵️‍♂️Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co — X / TWITTER: @byrnehobart @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: AI's impact on written content is overstated despite its technical achievements. The social adjustment to blogging was more disruptive than our current adjustment to AI-generated content. Traditional media eventually incorporated blogging and adapted to different publishing cadences. "Real news" remains the least lucrative part of the news business. Media outlets drive partisan narratives through topic selection, not just content framing. Readers generally don't want nuanced views that might challenge their existing beliefs. Bezos positioned the Washington Post to serve growth-oriented progressives and non-Trumpist conservatives. Elon Musk's "Doge" review of USAID may use a strategy of cutting drastically then restoring essential services. Programs like PEPFAR (AIDS relief) have extremely high returns on investment that shouldn't be overlooked. US military spending could be viewed as a form of foreign aid by preventing global conflicts. Karp critiques tech for excelling at "delivering delightful trivialities" but neglecting serious national challenges. Silicon Valley has shifted from "atheist libertarianism" to more nationalist viewpoints. Companies like Palantir represent a public-private synthesis of government capability. Tech companies had anti-establishment cultures when small but now are the establishment themselves. Education polarization has strongly influenced political alignments in the tech industry. When outsiders become insiders, they need to adopt more pragmatic governance approaches.…

"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

1
E124: How to Have A Philosophical Marriage w/ Agnes Callard and Arnold Brooks 1:12:09

hace 7 weeks1:12:09

1:12:09

Today on Upstream, we’re releasing an episode from Modern Relationships which originally aired on February 28, 2025 where Erik Torenberg interviews philosophy professors Agnes Callard and Arnold Brooks about their unconventional marriage, the role of philosophy in their relationship, the impact of their public profile, and how they balance personal and philosophical life together. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. This season's guests include: Delian Asparouhov & Nadia Asparouhova, Kristen Berman & Phil Levin, Rob Henderson, and Liv Boeree & Igor Kurganov. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod — SPONSORS: ☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at oracle.com/turpentine 🎯 Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit adquick.com to start reaching your customers in the real world. 🕵️‍♂️ Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: New Yorker article on Agnes and Arnold, by Rachel Aviv: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/03/13/agnes-callard-profile-marriage-philosophy Agnes Callard: https://philosophy.uchicago.edu/faculty/a-callard Arnold Brooks: https://philosophy.uchicago.edu/arnold-brooks Pre-order Agnes Callard's new book Open Socrates: https://wwnorton.com/books/open-socrates Agnes Callard on Upstream: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JotaCsaG3Y — X / TWITTER: @AgnesCallard @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: Agnes Callard and Arnold Brooks are philosophy professors at University of Chicago who met when she was his teacher, leading to her divorce from Ben and marriage to Arnold. Agnes was initially attracted to Arnold's remarkable ability to interpret Aristotle, which she considered more impressive than conventional attractive qualities. Arnold was drawn to Agnes as a "fellow philosopher" in a specific way he hadn't experienced with anyone else before. Their philosophical disagreement centers on whether marriage is something achievable to build upon (Arnold's view) or an indefinite pursuit toward an ideal that may be beyond reach (Agnes's view). Agnes provocatively stated "marriage is a preparation for divorce" - not meaning marriages should end, but that relationships require navigating difficult circumstances. They maintain an unusual living arrangement where Agnes, Arnold, and her ex-husband Ben all live together and co-parent. Arnold says his primary attraction is simply witnessing Agnes's way of living, which doesn't require reciprocation. They caution against basing relationships solely on reciprocal goods (I support you, you support me). Their approach to raising "interesting" children involves asking them abstract questions rather than concrete ones. Their New Yorker profile brought public attention that Agnes believes says more about readers' fascination than about their actual relationship.…

"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

1
E123: Trump & The Game of Populism w/ Samo Burja 59:15

hace 7 weeks59:15

59:15

Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja discuss the limitations of populist politics, the difficulty populists face in effecting change despite electoral wins, and the influence of digital democracy on modern governance. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️Live Players Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg provide analysis of the news and case studies of Live Players, as well as key institutions and technologies that make up the global power landscape. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/live-players-with-samo-burja-and-erik-torenberg/id1718925188 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5fbMTkHBnom1JIBWYNVBK1?si=01ed191c74264f55 Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@LivePlayerswithSamoBurja — SPONSORS: ☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at https://oracle.com/turpentine 🎯 Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit https://adquick.com/ to start reaching your customers in the real world. 🕵️‍♂️ Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Bismark Analysis: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/ — X / TWITTER: @samoburja @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: Populists win elections but struggle to govern effectively against entrenched bureaucracies. Modern populism confronts administrative states, unlike historical populism that opposed monarchies. The administrative state was ironically strengthened by early 20th century populist movements. Case studies (Hungary, Brexit) show winning elections doesn't guarantee successful implementation. Trump faces resistance from within the Republican Party, limiting his appointment power. Elon Musk and X.com provide Trump stronger tools than he had in 2016. Left populism offers direct benefits while right populism promises protection from threats. Samo suggests tech elites could pool money to counter traditional Republican donors' influence. Future Democratic success may come from candidates combining progressive policies with family-oriented messaging. Populism emerged through internet's bypass of traditional media gatekeepers. Western democracies need a new balance between populist movements and administrative institutions.…

"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

1
E122: Victor Davis Hanson on What Trump Thinks of Zelensky and Predicting Geopolitics 37:51

hace 8 weeks37:51

37:51

In this Upstream episode, Erik Torenberg sits down with military historian Victor Davis Hanson. They discuss the future of Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, the evolution of the American left, and Donald Trump's potential future legacy. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse — SPONSORS: ☁️Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at oracle.com/turpentine 🎯 Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit adquick.com to start reaching your customers in the real world. 🕵️‍♂️ Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Official site: https://victorhanson.com/ The Victor Davis Hanson podcast: https://victorhanson.com/podcasts/ Hoover Institution - featured publications and videos: https://www.hoover.org/profiles/victor-davis-hanson Erik's substack: https://eriktorenberg.substack.com/ — X / TWITTER: @VDHanson @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: Trump's second term will likely be less chaotic due to appointees who align with his agenda. The Republican party is now more unified without "Never Trumpers." Trump expanded his coalition by winning significant portions of Hispanic and Black male votes. JD Vance is positioned as a strong 2028 candidate due to his background and communication skills. Europe will likely move politically rightward due to economic and defense inadequacies. Germany maintains trade surpluses while not meeting NATO defense spending requirements. The US-European relationship has become unbalanced with Europeans criticizing while depending on American defense. The Ukraine-Russia conflict will likely end with a DMZ rather than Ukraine reclaiming all territory. Putin invaded Ukraine because he perceived weakness in US leadership. Western interference in Ukrainian politics contributed to tensions. Trump's peace plan includes strategic investment in Ukrainian minerals near the DMZ. There's inconsistency in how the US approaches Ukraine versus Israel regarding civilian casualties. China is less likely to invade Taiwan compared to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Pacific allies are actively rearming against Chinese threats. New warfare technologies like drones may prove more effective for Taiwan's defense than traditional carriers. Israel struggles to convert tactical victories into strategic resolution. "Abraham Accords" allies have complex motivations including concerns about Iran. Western democracies struggle with asymmetric warfare and maintaining resolve for definitive victory. Democrats should return to Clinton-era policies on borders, crime, and budgets. Democrats are controlled by a hard left with positions only 20% of Americans support. Trump is transforming American politics from race-based to class-based coalition building. Republicans are becoming "the party of the middle class" while Democrats represent coastal elites and the subsidized poor.…

"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

1
E121: Kevin Kelly on What Makes Us Human in an AI World 50:16

hace 8 weeks50:16

50:16

In this episode of Upstream, we’re releasing Erik Torenberg’s interview from 2023 with Kevin Kelly, founding executive editor of Wired Magazine, discussing Kevin’s new advice book, the impact of gratitude, and how technology, especially AI, interacts with and shapes human existence and culture. — 📰Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️ Second Opinion Join Christina Farr, Ash Zenooz and Luba Greenwood as they bring influential entrepreneurs, experts and investors into the ring for candid conversations at the frontlines of healthcare and digital health every week. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0A8NwQE976s32zdBbZw6bv Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/second-opinion-with-christina-farr-ash-zenooz-md-luba/id1759267211 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@SecondOpinionwithChristinaFarr — SPONSORS: ☁️Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at oracle.com/turpentine 🎯Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit adquick.com to start reaching your customers in the real world. 🕵️‍♂️Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Kevin Kelly's book: Excellent Advice for Living: https://www.amazon.com/Excellent-Advice-Living-Wisdom-Earlier/dp/0593654528 — X / TWITTER: @kevin2kelly @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: Kevin Kelly published an advice book featuring "telegraphic aphorisms" rather than stories, which better suits his style. Kevin believes gratitude unlocks all virtues by connecting us to others through recognizing what we've been given. Emotional responses work faster than logical thinking, which is why people remember how you made them feel more than what you said. Reflecting on what irritates you in others can provide valuable insight into understanding yourself. Humans are "opaque to themselves," lacking clear understanding of their own minds and motivations. Kevin disputes overpopulation concerns, warning instead about future population collapse. According to Kelly, the joy of having children compounds, and he's never met anyone who regretted having more children. Kevin views speciation of humans as more likely to come through genetic engineering than cyborg technology. Kevin dismisses rapid AI takeover fears as "comic book fantasy," arguing that intelligence alone doesn't guarantee dominance. The concept of "we've invented our humanity" refers to language, cooking, domestication, and other technologies that shaped human evolution. Kevin predicts AI will help us understand our own intelligence better, forcing us to reconsider concepts like creativity. Most effective systems combine mostly decentralized elements with small amounts of centralized control. Silicon Valley's contribution to culture includes "demoralizing failure" – reframing it as a necessary component of progress. Small, managed failures prevent catastrophic ones and should be viewed as learning experiences. Kelly embraces the concept of "fail forward" – treating failures as stepping stones rather than endpoints.…

"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

1
E120: Why Europe Matters for America’s Future w/ Samo Burja 1:00:10

hace 9 weeks1:00:10

1:00:10

This week on Upstream, Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja discuss the widespread interest in U.S. politics and its global influence, particularly in Western and European countries, the internet's role in synchronizing political and cultural norms, and potential changes in European political landscapes influenced by American ideologies and media. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️Live Players Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg provide analysis of the news and case studies of Live Players, as well as key institutions and technologies that make up the global power landscape. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/live-players-with-samo-burja-and-erik-torenberg/id1718925188 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5fbMTkHBnom1JIBWYNVBK1?si=01ed191c74264f55 Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@LivePlayerswithSamoBurja 🎙️ Second Opinion Join Christina Farr, Ash Zenooz and Luba Greenwood as they bring influential entrepreneurs, experts and investors into the ring for candid conversations at the frontlines of healthcare and digital health every week. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0A8NwQE976s32zdBbZw6bv Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/second-opinion-with-christina-farr-ash-zenooz-md-luba/id1759267211 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@SecondOpinionwithChristinaFarr — SPONSORS: ☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at oracle.com/turpentine 🎯 Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit adquick.com to start reaching your customers in the real world. 🕵️‍♂️ Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Two buttons meme: https://ih1.redbubble.net/image.2365085899.3351/st,small,507x507-pad,600x600,f8f8f8.jpg The Clash of Civilizations: https://www.amazon.com/Clash-Civilizations-Remaking-World-Order/dp/1451628978 Bismark Analysis: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/ — X / TWITTER: @SamoBurja @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia…

"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

1
E119: Free Trade, AI Integration, and Shopify Q4 Results w/ Shopify President Harley Finkelstein 58:43

hace 9 weeks58:43

58:43

Erik Torenberg interviews Harley Finkelstein, president of Shopify, discussing tariffs, political shifts, Shopify's earnings, and the evolution of entrepreneurship. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. This season's guests include: Delian Asparouhov & Nadia Asparouhova, Kristen Berman & Phil Levin, Rob Henderson, and Liv Boeree & Igor Kurganov. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod SPONSORS: ☁️Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at oracle.com/turpentine 🎯Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit adquick.com to start reaching your customers in the real world. 🕵️‍♂️Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Shopify: https://www.shopify.com/ Firebelly Tea: https://www.firebellytea.com/ Big Shot Podcast: https://www.bigshot.show/ Shopify president on e-commerce trends, impact of tariffs and state of the consumer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=si_j0P0DPM4 World's First Podcast: https://linktr.ee/worldsfirstpodcast Nobody Wants This (Netflix): https://www.netflix.com/title/81591296 — X / TWITTER: @harleyf @Shopify @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: Harley views tariffs as adding unnecessary complexity to entrepreneurship. Shopify advocates for streamlining business creation processes. Not every business needs external funding to succeed. Shopify Capital helps merchants who can't access traditional funding. Harley's Big Shot podcast archives stories of successful Jewish entrepreneurs. A common theme across entrepreneur interviews is crediting spouses for success. October 7th strengthened Harley's connection to his Jewish identity. Harley employs different mentors for different aspects of life. Montreal's culture celebrates entrepreneurs as cultural heroes. Commonwealth countries suffer from "tall poppy syndrome" that discourages standing out. 2024 was Shopify's strongest year with nearly $300 billion in GMV. International merchants now represent 50% of Shopify's user base. Post-omnichannel commerce focuses on selling in places most relevant to specific customers. Content, entertainment, and commerce are increasingly blending for successful brands. Shopify takes a practical approach to AI implementation across its platform. AI features include generated replies, media editing, and business coaching. Shopify created dual career tracks: management and "crafters" (individual contributors). The "Mastery" program enables promotions while staying focused on craft expertise. Shopify operates "digital by design" - primarily remote with intentional gatherings. Leadership team members are distributed across multiple geographic locations. The company uses "tours of duty" - three-year commitments with deliberate check-ins. Employees must grow at a rate equal to or greater than the company's growth.…

"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

1
E118: Ending Woke, Why Elon Wins, and A Return to Innovation w/ Marc Andreessen [Moment of Zen repost] 1:48:29

hace 10 weeks1:48:29

1:48:29

Marc Andreessen and Erik Torenberg discuss the ongoing political and cultural shift in America, covering topics such as preference falsification, the role of DEI in tech and other sectors, the influence of group chats, and the emerging dynamic in politics with highly capable appointments in the new administration. — 📰Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️Moment of Zen Every week, Erik Torenberg, Dan Romero, Antonio Garcia Martinez and frequent special guests discuss what's happening in technology, business, politics, and beyond. Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/15KYOzvDzAQvqX0z0SpHEJ Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/moment-of-zen/id1661672738 🎙️Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. This season's guests include: Delian Asparouhov & Nadia Asparouhova, Kristen Berman & Phil Levin, Rob Henderson, and Liv Boeree & Igor Kurganov. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod — SPONSORS: ☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at oracle.com/turpentine 🎯 Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit adquick.com to start reaching your customers in the real world. 🕵️‍♂️ Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: "Private Truth, Public Lies" by Timur Kuran: https://www.hup.harvard.edu/books/9780674707580 "The Power of the Powerless" by Václav Havel: https://www.amazon.com/Power-Powerless-Vaclav-Havel/dp/178487504X "Why are Jews Liberal" by Norman Podhoretz: https://www.amazon.com/Why-Jews-Liberals-Norman-Podhoretz/dp/0307456250 "Atlas Shrugged" by Ayn Rand: https://www.amazon.com/Atlas-Shrugged-Ayn-Rand/dp/0451191145 Pew Research Survey: https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2023/03/15/americans-feel-more-positive-than-negative-about-jews-mainline-protestants-catholics/ — X / TWITTER: @pmarca @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: Commerce Secretary now advocates for out-innovating China, marking a complete reversal. "Preference falsification" in American society is starting to unwind. The 2014 Mozilla CEO cancellation became a template for future tech industry purges. "Woke" ideology is declining culturally but remains embedded in institutions. Private messaging groups became modern samizdat for honest communication. Cultural shifts start in San Francisco and spread outward with predictable delays. October 7th caused major Jewish American political realignment. Evangelical Christians show strong support for Jews despite opposite sentiment in return. New administration appointments show exceptional quality compared to historical standards. Government blocked innovation in physical things, then tried to restrict digital innovation. European regulations are forcing global tech compliance. New administration combines experienced staffers with high-caliber outsiders.…

"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

1
E117: The Future of Martian & Interplanetary Societies w/ Samo Burja 1:01:25

hace 10 weeks1:01:25

1:01:25

This week on Upstream, Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja discuss the economic, political, and cultural implications of colonizing Mars and the Moon, discussing space treaties, potential Martian and Earth societal divergence, and the technological advancements driving humanity's future as a multi-planetary species. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️Live Players Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg provide analysis of the news and case studies of Live Players, as well as key institutions and technologies that make up the global power landscape. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/live-players-with-samo-burja-and-erik-torenberg/id1718925188 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5fbMTkHBnom1JIBWYNVBK1?si=01ed191c74264f55 Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@LivePlayerswithSamoBurja 🎙️Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. This season's guests include: Delian Asparouhov & Nadia Asparouhova, Kristen Berman & Phil Levin, Rob Henderson, and Liv Boeree & Igor Kurganov. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod — SPONSORS: ☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at oracle.com/turpentine 🎯 Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit adquick.com to start reaching your customers in the real world. 🕵️‍♂️ Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Starship: https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/ (Pirate Wars) Moon Should Be a State: https://www.piratewires.com/p/moon-should-be-a-state Artemis: https://www.nasa.gov/feature/artemis/ SLS: https://www.nasa.gov/humans-in-space/space-launch-system/ Boom Supersonic: https://boomsupersonic.com/ Blue Origin: https://www.blueorigin.com/ Referenced Live Players episodes: The Turbulence of Boeing: Decline and Future Prospects: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q1pmCK6CrK4 The Technology That Can Reshape Nations (Desalination): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A_gEHhSXECs Bismark Analysis: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/ — X / TWITTER: @samoburja @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia…

"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

1
E116: Stuck Academia, US vs China, and Why Startups Work 1:03:43

hace 11 weeks1:03:43

1:03:43

Today, we're re-releasing an episode from 2023 where Erik Torenberg sits down with physicist and startup founder Steve Hsu on topics including the ideological shift in academia, the impact of AI on labor, China's technological advancements and geopolitical position, and the global fertility decline. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse — SPONSORS: ☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at oracle.com/turpentine 🎯 Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit adquick.com to start reaching your customers in the real world. 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE: Superfocus: https://superfocus.ai/ Othram: https://othram.com/index.html Manifold: https://www.manifold1.com/ Eric Kaufman’s works: https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=EcCc2C4AAAAJ&hl=en NY Times: Idaho University Murder Investigation: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/10/us/idaho-university-murder-investigation.html# — X / TWITTER: @hsu_steve @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: • Academia has shifted dramatically leftward, with around 90% of professors in social sciences being left-leaning. • Traditional academic merit-based systems like GRE requirements are being dismantled in favor of DEI initiatives. • Truth-seeking academics are increasingly moving to industry, particularly tech and innovation sectors. • The University of Austin represents an attempt to create an alternative academic institution focused on traditional academic values. • Global fertility decline is linked to fundamental changes in women's roles and societal values around family formation. • Current demographic challenges in China won't significantly impact their economy for at least 20 years. • AI is already capable of replacing complex customer service roles, as demonstrated in Philippines' call centers. • Law firms are reporting 20-30% efficiency gains from current AI implementations. • The guest views AI as humanity's descendants rather than a separate threatening entity. • Most Westerners, including tech leaders, are poorly informed about China's actual technological and economic capabilities. • China has built a comparable or superior tech ecosystem to the US in many areas. • The US needs to accept a bipolar world order rather than trying to maintain sole hegemony. • Western concerns about China's demographic collapse are often based on poor understanding of the data. • The future of AI research should focus more on theoretical understanding rather than just building bigger models. • The guest's company Othram has revolutionized crime-solving through advanced DNA analysis. • The guest balances work between deep theoretical physics problems and practical startup applications.…

"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

1
E115: New Tariff Implications, DeepSeek and Open Source Analysis, and Meta’s Big Bets w/ Byrne Hobart 1:10:53

hace 11 weeks1:10:53

1:10:53

Erik Torenberg and Byrne Hobart discuss the implications of recent tariffs, the impact of AI advancements like DeepSeek, Meta's investments in VR and AI, stock market dynamics, and differing perspectives on open-source AI models. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️Investor and writer of the popular newsletter The Diff, Byrne Hobart, and co-host Erik Torenberg discuss today’s major inflection points in technology, business, and markets – and help listeners build a diversified portfolio of trends and ideas for the future. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-riff-with-byrne-hobart-and-erik-torenberg/id1716646486 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6rANlV54GCARLgMOtpkzKt YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRiffPodcast — SPONSORS: ☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at oracle.com/turpentine 📝 Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at notion.com/upstreampod 🎯 Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit adquick.com to start reaching your customers in the real world. 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co — X / TWITTER: @byrnehobart @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: • Trump's proposed 25% tariffs on Canadian goods highlight tensions between using tariffs as negotiation tactics versus long-term economic strategy. • China's Belt and Road Initiative is essentially branding for existing Chinese international infrastructure investments aimed at extending economic influence. • DeepSeek's AI developments caused unexpected market reactions, with non-AI momentum stocks rising as investors unwound their AI-focused positions. • Forward Deployed Engineers serve as crucial bridges between complex technical products and business implementation, helping evolve products based on real-world usage. • Meta's significant capital expenditure on AI infrastructure represents a strategic shift from being purely asset-light to more capital-intensive. • A fantasy stock-picking competition aims to identify investment talent outside traditional recruiting paths through various categories like small-cap, mid-size, and event-driven investments. • The transition from asset-light to capital-intensive business models can actually strengthen a company's competitive position by making value harder to replicate. • Meta's metaverse investment might be premature, but AR (rather than VR) could emerge as the dominant future interface.…

"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

1
E114: Tyler Cowen on Legacy, Twitter + Harvard, and Fertility Decline [Upstream Archive] 59:58

hace 12 weeks59:58

59:58

Tyler Cowen discusses his book on the greatest economists of all time, evaluates the contributions of macroeconomics, and touches on topics such as stagnation, AI, fertility, and the future of academia and societal trends. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. This season's guests include: Delian Asparouhov & Nadia Asparouhova, Kristen Berman & Phil Levin, Rob Henderson, and Liv Boeree & Igor Kurganov. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod — SPONSORS: ☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at oracle.com/turpentine 📝 Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at notion.com/upstreampod 🎯 Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit adquick.com to start reaching your customers in the real world. 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Read Tyler's new book for free: https://econgoat.ai/ Tyler's blog: https://marginalrevolution.com — X / TWITTER: @tylercowen @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: Tyler Cowen wrote his book "Greatest Economist of All Time" during the pandemic when he was confined at home and couldn't access libraries. Tyler believes that while macroeconomics isn't predictive, it helps understand variables that affect economic outcomes, like in Argentina's current situation. In Tyler’s view, the U.S. economy has become more controlled and statist over recent decades, though personal freedoms have increased in some areas. Academic economics has shifted significantly to the left, with about five-sixths of economists with party affiliations being Democrats. Population decline as a serious threat that AI might help address but won't fully solve without maintaining human population. A large subsidy (around $300,000-400,000 per child) might be needed to effectively address falling birth rates. On higher education, he believes Harvard and other elite institutions will shift toward the center but won't fundamentally change their nature. Tyler runs Emergent Ventures, which has over 500 winners, focusing on funding talented individuals rather than specific projects or fields. He maintains that liberal democracies remain the most successful model, despite criticisms from post-liberal thinkers. Regarding his own legacy, Tyler believes his main contribution is demonstrating that a certain kind of intellectual life is possible and can be influential. He argues that his strength lies in integrating theoretical thinking with practical projects while maintaining intellectual curiosity. Tyler expresses optimism about the University of Austin while acknowledging the challenges of scaling alternative educational institutions.…

"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

1
E113: Reflections on Yarvin, Why the Right is Stuck, and Startups as Dictatorships w/ Samo Burja 58:09

hace 12 weeks58:09

58:09

In this episode, Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg discuss Curtis Yarvin's recent New York Times interview. They explored his ideas, especially the comparison between corporate market dynamics and government functionality, and the need for live players in leadership to prevent bureaucratic decay. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️Live Players Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg provide analysis of the news and case studies of Live Players, as well as key institutions and technologies that make up the global power landscape. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/live-players-with-samo-burja-and-erik-torenberg/id1718925188 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5fbMTkHBnom1JIBWYNVBK1?si=01ed191c74264f55 Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@LivePlayerswithSamoBurja 🎙️Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. This season's guests include: Delian Asparouhov & Nadia Asparouhova, Kristen Berman & Phil Levin, Rob Henderson, and Liv Boeree & Igor Kurganov. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod — SPONSORS: ☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at oracle.com/turpentine 📝 Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at notion.com/upstreampod 🎯 Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit adquick.com to start reaching your customers in the real world. 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: 'The Interview': Curtis Yarvin Says Democracy is Done (NY Times): https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/18/magazine/curtis-yarvin-interview.html Dwarkesh’s tweet: https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/1881776987322376435 Samo’s Tweet: https://x.com/SamoBurja/status/1882525049003164147 Bismark Analysis: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/ — X / TWITTER: @samoburja @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: Curtis Yarvin's influence on tech-right thinking challenged conventional political discourse through digital platforms. Corporate efficiency doesn't follow natural selection principles - institutional success requires active leadership rather than market forces alone. Government accountability and innovation are stifled by bureaucratic gridlock, with catastrophic potential costs to society (exemplified by China's one-child policy). Mainstream political ideologies (left & right) are more aligned than they appear, suggesting democracy isn't the final stage of political evolution. Engaging with controversial thinkers like Yarvin reveals important critiques of current systems, even when disagreeing with their proposed solutions. Societal progress requires harnessing collective energy and maintaining efficient governance structures.…

"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

1
E112: Election Update, Tech’s Political Shift, and America’s Stuck GDP | This Won’t Last 1:13:35

hace 13 weeks1:13:35

1:13:35

This week on Upstream, we’re sharing Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg’s discussion of the 2025 post-election landscape centered on Trump's victory, examining his evolved approach and tech industry support, while exploring interconnected policy challenges around immigration, corporate politics, urban crime, and market regulation in areas like wildfire insurance and healthcare. — 📰Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️This Won't Last Eavesdrop on Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg's monthly backchannel. They unpack their hottest takes on the future of tech, business, venture, investing, and politics. Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/id1765665937 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2HwSNeVLL1MXy0RjFPyOSz YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast 🎙️Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. This season's guests include: Delian Asparouhov & Nadia Asparouhova, Kristen Berman & Phil Levin, Rob Henderson, and Liv Boeree & Igor Kurganov. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod — SPONSORS: ☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at oracle.com/turpentine 📝 Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at notion.com/upstreampod 🎯 Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit adquick.com to start reaching your customers in the real world. 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Check out the Logan Bartlett Show: @theloganbartlettshow — X / TWITTER: @rabois @kevinryan @loganbartlett @zachweinberg @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: Trump won the presidency with refined messaging and tech industry backing, despite a narrow popular vote margin. His administration combines qualified experts and controversial picks, emphasizing economic growth and debt reduction. Immigration debate centered on H-1B reform and enforcement policy, balancing population needs with border control. Companies have largely adopted Coinbase's "no politics at work" stance, though diversity initiatives remain contentious. NYC crime shows declining murders but rising minor crimes, spurring debates over bail reform and policing. California's wildfire insurance crisis highlights market dynamics as private insurers exit high-risk areas. Regulatory capture in healthcare and auto sales demonstrates how entrenched interests create market inefficiencies.…

"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

1
E111: Samo Burja & Auren Hoffman on the Decline of Fertility Rates and Institutional Trust 1:20:27

hace 13 weeks1:20:27

1:20:27

Samo Burja and Auren Hoffman discuss various topics including the Great Founder Theory, the decline of trust in elites, falling fertility rates, and the importance of exceptional individuals in shaping history and future societal structures. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️Live Players Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg provide analysis of the news and case studies of Live Players, as well as key institutions and technologies that make up the global power landscape. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/live-players-with-samo-burja-and-erik-torenberg/id1718925188 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5fbMTkHBnom1JIBWYNVBK1?si=01ed191c74264f55 Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@LivePlayerswithSamoBurja 🎙️World of DaaS with Auren Hoffman The podcast for all things tech, data, and VC. Cut through the noise, decode Silicon Valley shifts and expose master VC tactics – no fluff, no BS, just insights. Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/20YzRoxX3wZbrn2cZDEZ4j Apple Podcasts - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/world-of-daas/id1570644971 🎙️Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. This season's guests include: Delian Asparouhov & Nadia Asparouhova, Kristen Berman & Phil Levin, Rob Henderson, and Liv Boeree & Igor Kurganov. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod — SPONSORS: ☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at oracle.com/turpentine 📝 Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at notion.com/upstreampod 🎯 Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit adquick.com to start reaching your customers in the real world. 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Great Founder Theory: https://samoburja.com/great-founder-theory/ Bismark Analysis: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/ — X / TWITTER: @samoburja @auren @worldofdaas @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: Few exceptional founders shape civilization by creating enduring institutions and systems that transform society. Public trust in institutions has collapsed since the 1950s, though business interactions remain surprisingly trusted in American society. Modern parenting has become excessively protective, forcing youth social life to exist primarily online rather than in physical spaces. Global fertility rates are plummeting due to rising parenting costs, delayed marriages, and career prioritization. Extended lifespans and technological advances risk disrupting vital intergenerational connections by pushing parenthood later in life. Taking sabbaticals to read and reflect away from professional networks remains crucial but undervalued for leadership development.h.…

"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

1
E110: Crypto Debanking: What Really Happened | Patrick McKenzie 1:05:43

hace 14 weeks1:05:43

1:05:43

Today on Upstream, we’re releasing an interview between Erik Torenberg and Patrick McKenzie. Patrick discusses Operation Chokepoint, the origins of debanking, and how it affects the crypto industry, offering detailed insights into the political motivations, regulatory complexities, and practical ramifications of such banking decisions. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) talks to experts who understand the complicated but not unknowable systems we rely on. You might be surprised at how quickly Patrick and his guests can put you in the top 1% of understanding for stock trading, tech hiring, and more. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Mos4VE3figVXleHDqfXOH Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/complex-systems-with-patrick-mckenzie-patio11/id1753399812 🎙️Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. This season's guests include: Delian Asparouhov & Nadia Asparouhova, Kristen Berman & Phil Levin, Rob Henderson, and Liv Boeree & Igor Kurganov. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod — SPONSORS: ☁️Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at oracle.com/turpentine 📝Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at notion.com/upstreampod 🎯Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit adquick.com to start reaching your customers in the real world. 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Debanking (and Debunking?) https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/debanking-and-debunking/ a16z's Debanking explainer: https://a16zcrypto.com/posts/article/debanking-explained/ — X / TWITTER: @patio11 @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: Marc Andreessen's Joe Rogan appearance discussing politically motivated debanking sparked this investigation into the topic. "Debanking" is revealed as an advocacy term covering account terminations, denials, and actions against crypto-friendly banks. Operation Chokepoint was an Obama-era DOJ program using banking laws to pressure banks away from servicing certain industries. "Operation Chokepoint 2.0" is not an actual program but a term coined by crypto advocates to describe recent crypto banking challenges. Silvergate Bank, a major crypto-friendly bank, wound down after the FTX collapse amid allegations of compliance failures and fraud involvement. The tech industry connects debanking to broader government overreach concerns, including social media content moderation. Canada's Freedom Convoy response represents a clear example of government-directed financial targeting, unlike the claimed US situation. The crypto industry pushes the debanking narrative as part of a specific policy agenda.…

"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

1
E109: Dating & Relationships Deep Dive w/ Noah Smith and Katherine Dee (Default Friend) 57:24

hace 14 weeks57:24

57:24

This week on Upstream, we’re releasing an episode of Econ102. Erik Torenberg and Noah Smith talk with Katherine Dee (@default_friend) about dating in the 21st century, differences in dating markets, the impact of feminism, technology's influence on cultural creativity, societal shifts, and the state of online subcultures. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️Econ102 with Noah Smith Keeping econ entertaining - Noahpinion author Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg break down business news and politics every week. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1696419056 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6q7Gn5lP8TTtBPuV1NJSGs 🎙️Check out Modern Relationships, where Erik Torenberg interviews tech power couples and leading thinkers to explore how ambitious people actually make partnerships work. This season's guests include: Delian Asparouhov & Nadia Asparouhova, Kristen Berman & Phil Levin, Rob Henderson, and Liv Boeree & Igor Kurganov. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1786227593 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5hJzs0gDg6lRT6r10mdpVg YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ModernRelationshipsPod — SPONSORS: ☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at oracle.com/turpentine 📝 Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at notion.com/upstreampod 🎯 Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit adquick.com to start reaching your customers in the real world. 💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. — LINKS: Default Friend: https://default.blog/ Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ — X / TWITTER: @default_friend @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia — HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE: Dating markets vary dramatically by city and class, with different standards of attraction and success between tech hubs, creative centers, and smaller cities. COVID's social damage persists, with 30% of young men sexless and many third spaces (bars, cafes) permanently lost, weakening natural meeting opportunities. Social media has replaced college as the primary connector, fundamentally changing how young people form relationships across geographic boundaries. While online gender discourse is extreme, real-world dating attitudes are moderate - most people aren't living out manosphere or radical feminist ideologies. "Situationships" dominate modern dating - undefined, low-commitment arrangements reflecting broader avoidant attachment trends and fear of direct communication. Social platforms evolved from enhancing real-world connections to replacing them, prompting calls for increased "friction" to encourage meaningful interaction. Modern dating faces new challenges: declining testosterone, political division, AI relationships, and dating app culture replacing organic connection. Dating advice has overcomplicated simple human connections - basic attraction and compatibility monetized into unnecessary complexity. Cultural influence has fragmented from central platforms into dispersed channels, making trends harder to track and predict.…

"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

1
E108: Should AI have Rights? With Nathan Labenz and Yeshua God, Robopsychologist 3:01:42

hace 15 weeks3:01:42