Variance Betting Episode 3 | How To Be a Smarter Premier League Bettor

The Transfer Flow Podcast

Ted Knutson, former professional gambler, explains his best betting practices and discusses his Premier League Matchday 4 picks. Subscribe for more!

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TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Introduction

1:44 Who is Ted Knutson?

2:20 Working With Pinnacle.com Products

3:26 Working at Brentford/Midtjylland & SmartOdds

4:05 Founding StatsBomb

4:25 Present Day — TheTransferFlow.com

4:58 Variance Betting Principles

5:21 Discount Bookies > Bonuses

8:20 Price Shop

10:37 Working with Models & Knowledge

12:35 Why Early Season is Tricky

13:54 Your Bets are your own

14:47 Market Implied (MI) Model

16:18 Be careful about Promoted Teams

17:18 Expected Goals (xG) Model

18:07 Caveats

21:06 Plugs

20:23 Recreational Sports Betting

22:32 Brighton v Ipswich Bet

23:52 Southampton v Man United Bet

25:11 Crystal Palace v Leicester Bet

26:02 Fulham v West Ham No Bet

26:25 Liverpool v Nottingham Forest Bet

27:25 Man City v Brentford No Bet

28:35 Aston Villa v Everton No Bet

29:46 Bournemouth v Chelsea Bet

31:20 Spurs v Arsenal Bet

32:39 Wolves v Newcastle No Bet

33:31 Recap

33:54 Outro

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