OIES Podcast – Gas Market Winter Outlook

Podcasts - Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

In this latest OIES podcast, from the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Anouk Honore and Jack Sharples about their latest paper on the winter outlook for gas markets. After a brief discussion the price rally in 2024 and the implications of the forward curve, the conversation then moves to the question of demand in Europe. In the power sector, gas is taking on a new and more volatile role as the back-up for renewable energy, responding to changes in wind and solar availability. The weather is also playing a role in the residential sector, where a colder winter is expected to push up gas demand compared to last year. Finally, a rebound is now being seen in the industrial sector as economic activity picks up. On the supply side, the discussion focuses on the lack of flexibility offered by pipeline supplies and the likelihood that exports from Russia will fall again in 2025 as the transit through Ukraine ends. This leaves Europe much more reliant on the global LNG market where supply growth has been limited over the past year and where some projects expected in 2025 have been delayed. As a result, the market is likely to remain tight, with a key focus being on the level of European stocks at the end of winter.