Spotlight on the US Elections

RBC's Markets in Motion

Three big things you need to know: First, our survey results, which are bottom-up in nature and driven by domestic policy views, imply that the event is relevant to US equity markets, but perhaps less so than some market participants may believe. For our US analysts, a Republican sweep was seen as the most bullish outcome, while a Democratic sweep was seen as the most bearish outcome, but the key thing to note is that the tilts were extremely mild. Second, some of the traditional Trump trades continue to emerge in policy assessments and sector views. Among our US analysts, Energy and Financials had some of the most bullish tilts in a Republican sweep scenario, and some of the most bearish tilts in a Democratic sweep scenario. Third, in terms of our own broader market call, we’ve viewed the elections as creating near-term uncertainty in the US equity market and the potential for some short-term choppiness, but the survey results add to our growing belief that the thing that may matter most for US equities (for 2024) is getting past the event so companies and investors know what they are dealing with.