America Decides: How the US Election Could Reshape Burma Policy

Insight Myanmar

The stakes for Myanmar are very high in the upcoming US election. Given the two candidates’ different perspectives on international involvement, the transition to a new US administration will directly affect the way the country helps shape global responses to authoritarianism and human rights abuses. This is particularly true in Myanmar. The panel discussion focuses on how U.S. leadership might engage with Myanmar’s struggle for freedom and democracy in the post-election period.

Panelists include:

• Scot Marciel, a seasoned U.S. diplomat, was the U.S. ambassador to Myanmar from 2016 to 2020. He now works with Stanford University and Asia-based initiatives, focusing on regional diplomacy and policy.
• Michael Haack has spent years advocating for stronger U.S. policy towards Myanmar, which includes leading the effort to pass the Burma Act, and secure funding for aid.
• Yun Sen is the Director of the China program at the Stimson Center, and an expert on China-Myanmar relations. She has closely monitored the geopolitical dynamics between China and Myanmar since 2008, focusing on border security and China's influence in Myanmar.
• Jack Myint is a non-resident fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). He has worked extensively on economic affairs, navigating the complexities of Myanmar's business landscape and international engagement, especially post-coup.

First, the panel delves into the likelihood of the military orchestrating a sham election, with guests suggesting that a Harris administration would likely approach it with skepticism. In contrast, they believe that a Trump administration could take a more unpredictable stance, adding that he also has a history of shaping policy through transactional deals.

They also explored Russia's growing influence in Myanmar, noting that while Russia's involvement is opportunistic, U.S. policy remains more focused on countering China's influence; a Harris administration would be likely to continue supporting Myanmar’s democratic movements, whereas a Trump administration may deprioritize the issue.

Finally, the panelists discussed the potential consequences of the Myanmar military being decisively defeated by resistance forces. They feel this could open the door for the U.S. to take a leading role in coordinating humanitarian relief and supporting democratic governance. However, concerns were raised about internal conflicts among ethnic groups, which could complicate the post-military landscape and make U.S. engagement more challenging, depending on how power is distributed and the stability of the new leadership.