Indictment Strengthens Trump

Harvard Harris Poll Debrief with Mark Penn and Bob Cusack

Harris Poll Chairman Mark Penn and Bob Cusack, Editor in Chief of The Hill explore the April Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll, conducted April 18-19, 2023, among 1,845 registered voters. ​

For the first time since last year, Americans’ view of the economy has declined and the public continues to take the Republicans’ side on debt negotiations, with 65% wanting Congress to raise the debt ceiling only with restraints on future spending. Meanwhile the indictment has strengthened Donald Trump’s standing among Republicans as he extends his lead in an open GOP primary to 55% support, while 65% of voters think Joe Biden would not be able to finish a second term if reelected.

VIEWS OF THE ECONOMY WORSEN AFTER 3 MONTHS OF IMPROVEMENTS

• Partisanship determines Americans’ view of the economy: 30% of voters overall say the economy on the right track, but 54% of Democrats think so compared to 12% of Republicans.
• 52% of voters think their personal financial situation is getting worse.

INDICTMENT STRENGTHENS TRUMP WITH REPUBLICANS AS DESANTIS FADES BUT IS NOT OUT

• 50% of voters, up 4 points from last month, now think a Trump trial will help his candidacy.
• 61% of voters believe Trump will ultimately be acquitted.
• In an open GOP primary Trump extends his lead to 55% support, with DeSantis falling to 20% support. In a head-to-head primary against DeSantis, Trump extends his lead to 61%.
• But 58% of Republican voters say DeSantis is ready to give Trump a “real challenge” for the Republican nomination.

VOTERS THINK A BIDEN SECOND TERM MEANS PRESIDENT HARRIS

• 63% of voters think Biden would not be able to finish a second term if reelected.

THE PUBLIC CONTINUES TO TAKE THE REPUBLICANS’ SIDE ON DEBT NEGOTIATIONS

• 66% of voters think the U.S. government has too much debt and 55% think the government is spending too much.
• When told the national debt is $31 trillion, 65% of voters want Congress to raise the debt ceiling only with restraints on future spending.
• 81% of voters, including 81% of Democrats and 86% of Republicans, support returning the country to a balanced budget.

CRIME CONCERNS BECOME LESS PARTISAN AS VOTERS WANT STRICTER PROSECUTION

• 86% of voters think crime is a serious issue right now and 48% think crime and safety are getting worse in their own communities.
• 60% of voters, including 52% of Democrats, think police today are afraid of doing their jobs.
• 58% of Americans, including 43% of Democrats, think big city district attorneys are pulling back from prosecuting violent offenders sufficiently.
• Voters most blame rising crime in American cities on the worsening economy (23%) and prosecutors who don’t enforce the laws (22%).

REGULAR AMERICANS AREN’T FAMILIAR WITH ESG

• 64% of voters have not heard of ESG investing.
• Americans are split on ESG strategies: after being given the definition, 52% of voters think investment managers have a duty to prioritize returns above all else rather than the option to consider climate and ESG concerns.

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