Soybean Rally Continues on NEW Cash Injections

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Soybean & Corn Futures Rally
The Nov24 soybean contract posted its best close since late July, rising 11 cents to close near $10.54 per bushel on Wednesday.
The US crop situation appears mostly "known," but there could be surprises in Monday’s USDA Grain Stocks report.
China's stimulus and ongoing dry conditions in Brazil are also lending support to soybean prices.
The Dec24 corn contract followed suit, closing at its best level since late July, with news of additional Chinese stimulus on the horizon.
Brazil Faces Continued Dryness
Brazil's soybean country remains drier than normal. Both the Euro and GFS models predict rain in early October, but amounts will likely stay below normal over the next two weeks.
Reuters reported that Brazil's drought has "halted" grain transportation through the Madeira River, a key route linking Mato Grosso to vital ports.
Last year, Brazil’s "North Arc" region accounted for 43% of the country's corn exports and 34% of soybean exports.
Drought Affects Russian & Ukrainian Winter Wheat Crops
Winter wheat acres have fallen to their lowest level since 2013, with only 20.5 million acres planted so far, down nearly 11% from last year.
Key producing regions received less than 20% of normal rainfall in the past month.
Ukraine is also feeling the strain:
Winter wheat planting in Ukraine has reached 2.2 million acres, marking a 14% decline from last year.
Hurricane Helene-
Hurricane Helene is intensifying and could become a Category 3 or 4 storm before landfall later today:
Expected to bring winds of 111 mph+, storm surges up to 18 feet, and 12 inches of rain.
The southern and eastern Corn Belt regions might receive up to 5 inches of rainfall from this storm.
Argentina's Shift to Soybeans Over Corn
Argentine farmers are favoring soybeans this season due to profitability concerns and potential disease risks:
Soybean crop is projected to increase by 3% to 52mmt, while the corn crop is expected to decline by 5% to 47mmt.
The shift is driven by higher profitability for soybeans and concerns over leafhopper-induced stunt disease, which severely impacted last year’s corn crop.
US ethanol production took a dip last week:
Output fell to 994,000 barrels per day, down 5.2% on the week but still +1.4% vs. the same week last year.
Ethanol stocks were reported at 23.5 million barrels, down 1.1% from the previous week but up 8.5% compared to last year.
Despite the drop, implied gasoline demand rose 4.9% week-over-week and 9.5% compared to last year.
USDA Reports Flash Sale of Corn
The USDA reported a flash sale of 180,000mt (7 million bushels) of corn to Mexico for delivery during the current MY.
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