Short-Term Biden 45Z Guidance + USDA Preview

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🌱 Biden Administration to Release 45Z Tax Credit Guidance Today 💼
The Biden administration plans to release short-term 45Z tax credit guidance today 📆. However, the Trump administration will make the final ruling on the tax credit once he takes office 🏛️. The credit was set to become effective on January 1, but the lack of guidance from the US Treasury has threatened the program’s activation 🛑. Biden's administration believes companies can follow the interim guidance, but any final rule will depend on Trump's decisions 💰. Wintry weather in Washington, DC, and the funeral of former President Jimmy Carter may delay the guidance release ⏳.
📊 USDA Monthly Crop Production & WASDE Report Today 📅
USDA will release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE report today at 11am CST 🗓️. The quarterly Grain Stocks report will be released alongside the monthly report 📉. Analysts expect a small reduction in the size of the 2024 US corn and soybean crops 🌽🌱. If realized, this could lead to reduced carryout projections. US corn stocks as of December 1st are expected to be down less than 1% from last year, while soybean stocks are projected to be up 8% and wheat stocks up 10% 🌾. Stay tuned for key updates from the USDA report 📊.
🌧️ Argentina’s Crops Need Moisture ☀️
Argentina's corn and soybean crops are experiencing stress due to hot and dry weather 🌞. According to the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange, rainfall is expected to arrive next week 🌧️, with 2 to 3 inches of rain forecasted for January 16-22 ⏳. About 92% of both soybean and corn crops have been planted, and the much-needed rain will help the crops through their critical stages 🌱. The wheat harvest in Argentina is nearly complete, with an estimated production of 18.6 million metric tons (mmt) 🌾.
🌍 La Niña Officially Arrives 🌦️
La Niña has officially formed in the tropical Pacific Ocean 🌊, though later and weaker than expected. This weather pattern is usually associated with drier conditions across the southern and western US as well as South America 🌎. La Niña increases the risk of drought in agricultural regions of Argentina and Brazil 🌾. However, the weakness of the pattern suggests the impacts may not be as severe this time ⚖️. La Niña is expected to persist through April, with a 60% chance it will fade between March and May, shifting to ENSO-neutral 🌐.
🌧️ Winter Storm Brings Relief to Drought-Stricken Areas 🌀
The USDA weekly drought monitor reported improvements in drought conditions following a winter storm that moved across the Corn Belt last week ❄️. The storm brought much-needed precipitation to areas like eastern Ohio, northern Indiana, northeast Missouri, and northern and eastern Illinois 🌧️. Significant snowfall also helped improve drought conditions in northeast Kansas 🌨️. Despite these improvements, drought remains a concern in several areas, including corn, soybeans, and spring wheat production 🌽🌾.
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