Evan Silva’s Matchups: Wild Card Round

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LAC @ HOU | PIT @ BAL | DEN @ BUF | GB @ PHI | WAS @ TB | MIN @ LAR

Wild Card Saturday

4:30 PM ET Game

L.A. Chargers @ Houston

Team Totals: Chargers 22.5, Texans 20

Justin Herbert enters Saturday’s date with the Texans beneath Houston’s NRG Stadium roof on a tear, having completed 77 of 105 passes (73%) for 911 yards (8.7 YPA) and a 7:1 TD-to-INT ratio over Los Angeles’ last three games. Averaging 27.3 rushing yards, Herbert closed 2024’s regular season as fantasy’s overall QB5 in that Weeks 16-18 stretch. … Back from I.R. two weeks ago, J.K. Dobbins immediately reasserted himself as the Bolts’ bellcow by averaging 20.5 touches for 79 yards and 0.5 TDs in wins over the Patriots and Raiders. The Texans surrendered the NFL’s fifth-fewest fantasy points to running backs this regular season, but this profiles as a neutral- to positive-script affair for the Chargers in which Dobbins should again be ridden hard. I’m anticipating another outing of 20+ touches.

Ladd McConkey enters Week 19 having topped 80 yards and/or scored a touchdown in seven straight games while netting fantasy’s cumulative WR10 score in per-game PPR points since Week 8. As McConkey runs 65% of his routes in the slot, he should avoid Texans stud outside CBs Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter on the majority of this game’s snaps. … As perimeter cover men, Stingley and Lassiter are far likelier to deal with Week 18 breakout Quentin Johnston, who runs 91% of his routes outside. On paper, this game adds up nicely in Herbert and McConkey’s favor. … Will Dissly is the Chargers’ tight end to bet on if you’re touchdown hunting and/or seeking out a Herbert attachment.

Box-score hopes for C.J. Stroud feel wafer thin after a massively disappointing sophomore year in which he took colossal steps back from his rookie season in terms of yards per pass attempt (8.2 > 7.0), QB rating (100.8 > 87.0), and fantasy points per game (18.9 > 14.4). The Texans have allowed free rushers to affect Stroud at an unsustainably high rate, which may cost OC Bobby Slowik his job after this season mercifully ends. Week 19 foe Los Angeles has surrendered the NFL’s second-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.7) and seventh-lowest passer rating (87). … 28-year-old Joe Mixon should have relatively fresh legs after amassing just 17 combined touches over Houston’s final two regular-season games. 2024’s Chargers limited opposing running backs to the league’s third-fewest fantasy points. Nevertheless, the Texans figure to ride Mixon with authority as long as Saturday’s game stays close.

Even with Stefon Diggs (ACL) and Tank Dell (leg/knee) down for the count, Nico Collins hasn’t topped 60 yards since Week 13. Yet Collins is worth betting on in Week 19 with team survival on the line. The Chargers have played middling defense against WRs, while Collins established himself as a true alpha this year. … Usage distribution between John Metchie, Robert Woods, Xavier Hutchinson, and Diontae Johnson is to be determined; Johnson is obviously most talented of the group but had fallings out with the Panthers and Ravens in the same year and is learning Houston’s offense on the fly. … Albeit a 2024 disappointment in both real life and fantasy, Dalton Schultz remains the Texans’ primary tight end. It still wouldn’t surprise if rookie TE Cade Stover nearly equaled Schultz in Week 19 playing time.

Score Prediction: Texans 21, Chargers 20

8:00 PM ET Game

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore

Team Totals: Ravens 26.5, Steelers 17

Obviously exacerbated by No. 1 WR George Pickens’ refusal to buy into the Steelers’ team goals, Russell Wilson dipped into low-end two-quarterback-league territory down 2024’s stretch. From Weeks 11-18, the Ravens yielded a microscopic 5.8 yards-per-pass-attempt average and 72 QB rating. Russ hasn’t so much as reached 220 passing yards since Week 13. … As a two-score road dog here, Pittsburgh projects to feature Jaylen Warren ahead of Najee Harris at Baltimore. The Ravens have allowed the NFL’s fourth-most receiving yards (674) to running backs — complementing Warren’s catch-first skill set — while Warren tends to out-snap Harris when Pittsburgh is coming from behind. The Steelers are big underdogs.

Pickens’ weekly effort is a guess. In five career dates with the Ravens, Pickens’ stat lines are 8/89/0, 0/0/0, 6/130/1, 2/29/0, and 3/78/0. … Pat Freiermuth has emerged as Pittsburgh’s most reliable receiving option, averaging 6.3 targets and 5.0 catches over the Steelers’ last six games. … In order, Van Jefferson, Calvin Austin, and Mike Williams continue to occupy Pittsburgh’s Nos. 2-4 wide receiver roles. Unless Pickens springs to life and keeps his head on straight, this feels like a dead passing game outside of Freiermuth.

As a volume workhorse on a team favored by two scores at home, Derrick Henry looks ticketed for monster Week 19 usage. The Steelers never presented an especially favorable regular-season matchup for enemy rushing attacks, yet Henry piled up 26 all-purpose touches in these clubs’ Week 16 meeting and finished the season No. 1 in the AFC in rushing attempts (325) and rushing yards (1,921) while tying for the league lead in rushing TDs (16). … Beginning with most recent, Lamar Jackson’s last three weekly fantasy finishes against the Steelers are QB13, QB24, and QB19. No NFL team has done a better job of containing Jackson than Pittsburgh since he entered the league, while the likely absence of Ravens No. 1 WR Zay Flowers (knee) cuts into Jackson’s passing projection.

Sans Flowers, Rashod Bateman takes front and center as Baltimore’s No. 1 wideout after netting 2024 career highs in targets (72), receiving yards (756), and TDs (9) while creating separation versus man coverage at a top-10 clip. Pittsburgh did permit the NFL’s eighth-most receiving yards to enemy wideouts (2,635) in 2024. … Mark Andrews logged his second-highest snap rate of the season in Week 18’s win over Cleveland (79%) and has scored 11 touchdowns over Baltimore’s last 12 games. This regular season, Pittsburgh gave up the NFL’s second-most catches (106) to tight ends. … Flowers’ absence also elevates the outlook for Isaiah Likely, who caused Weeks 11 (4/75/0) and 16 (3/29/1) problems for the Steelers. Likely has a chance to be a real difference-maker on playoff-only DFS slates. … Tylan Wallace appears likely to operate as Baltimore’s No. 2 wideout in place of Flowers after logging a 73% snap rate in Week 18’s win over Cleveland. A 2021 fourth-round draft pick out of Oklahoma State, Wallace stands 5-foot-11/194 with 4.49 speed and almost no track record of NFL production. He nevertheless warrants mention on playoff-only DFS slates.

Score Prediction: Ravens 27, Steelers 17

Wild Card Sunday

1:00 PM ET Game

Denver @ Buffalo

Team Totals: Bills 27.5, Broncos 19

I took Denver to cover this game’s 8.5-point spread, even as a Bills Super Bowl ticket holder from all the way back in June. The Broncos are averaging 32.6 points scored over their last seven games while allowing the NFL’s third-fewest points per game (18.3) over the course of the year. … Denver’s short-area passing game theoretically matches up favorably against a Bills defense geared to halt big plays. 30th among 2024 starting quarterbacks in aDOT (3.8), Bo Nix has shown he’s capable of picking apart zone-based secondaries behind an elite pass-protecting offensive line in HC Sean Payton’s high-percentage attack. The Broncos scored 24 or more points in each of their final seven games. … Denver’s RB distribution remains a conundrum involving Jaleel McLaughlin, Audric Estime, Javonte Williams, and dual-threat Nix, who led the team in Week 18 rushing. McLaughlin looks to be the safest-floor, highest-ceiling bet having handled double-digit touches in four straight appearances. McLaughlin is also Denver’s most natural pass-catching back, while Buffalo has given up the NFL’s second-most grabs (92) and a league-high 750 receiving yards to opposing RBs.

Buffalo’s zone-coverage defense has held opponents to the NFL’s fifth-fewest 20+ yard completions (43), while plus-sized No. 1 CB Christian Benford (6-foot-1/208) has a shot to give Courtland Sutton fits. (Benford has allowed a minuscule 5.4 yards per target this season.) … Marvin Mims Jr. is a rotational part of Denver’s wideout corps — he hovers in the 35-50% snap range on a per-game basis — but is regularly seeing around five targets supplemented by rushing opportunities. Mims is a low-floor, high-ceiling lottery ticket. … Devaughn Vele, Troy Franklin, and Lil’Jordan Humphrey round out the Broncos’ five-man WR weave. Vele is playing the most of that group. … No member of Denver’s three-way tight end rotation — consisting of Adam Trautman, Nate Adkins, and Lucas Krull — has teased fantasy appeal.

MVP favorite Josh Allen’s Week 19 statistical edges are minimal against a Broncos defense that’s surrendered the NFL’s fifth-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.8) and sixth-lowest QB rating (86.2) while leading the league in sacks (63). I’m parlaying Denver covering 8.5 with the under on this game’s 46.5-point total. … OC Joe Brady narrowing Buffalo’s backfield to feature James Cook and reduce the usage of Ty Johnson and Ray Davis in the playoffs should surprise no one as part of a theoretical effort to feed the Bills’ best players the ball. The Broncos haven’t offered a plus running back draw all season, but Cook is an explosive ball carrier and pass catcher who led the NFL in regular-season rushing touchdowns (16).

Buffalo has held strong onto a five-way WR rotation involving possession threat Khalil Shakir, low-volume decoy Mack Hollins, volatile rookie Keon Coleman, hot-and-cold trade-deadline acquisition Amari Cooper, and gadget type Curtis Samuel. The Broncos allowed the NFL’s fifth-fewest fantasy wide receiver points this season. … Among 2024’s biggest box-score disappointments, Dalton Kincaid hit 55 yards in none of his 13 appearances this season and is by no means assured of playing ahead of Dawson Knox versus Denver.

Score Prediction: Bills 21, Broncos 20

4:30 PM ET Game

Green Bay @ Philadelphia

Team Totals: Eagles 25, Packers 20.5

Losers in each of their final two regular-season games, the Packers limp into Philly to face an Eagles team that rested starters in Week 18. Jordan Love was limited in practice this week after losing feeling in his throwing hand in last Sunday’s loss to Chicago, while top deep threat Christian Watson (ACL) is gone for the year. The Eagles have allowed the NFL’s sixth-lowest completion rate (62.2%), a league-low 6.0 yards per pass attempt, and the NFL’s third-lowest QB rating (82.5). I’m taking Philly to cover this game’s 4.5-point spread. … No team allowed fewer fantasy running back points than Philadelphia in 2024, while HC Matt LaFleur’s Packers showed no late-season willingness to adjust game plans to attack opponents’ weaknesses. Josh Jacobs risks running relentlessly into brick walls at Philly.

Watson’s loss narrows Green Bay’s probable three-receiver set to Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, and Dontayvion Wicks against a rested and elite Eagles secondary that permitted the league’s third-fewest yards to enemy WRs (2,202) this regular season. You’re entirely on your own guessing which Packers wideout might deliver here. … Tucker Kraft is arguably Green Bay’s most stable pass catcher after averaging 50.8 yards over the last six games.

Sidelined since Dec. 22, Jalen Hurts should be refreshed physically ahead of Week 19’s home date with Green Bay surrounded by a fully-loaded arsenal that got back Dallas Goedert (knee) from a month-long absence in last Sunday’s win over the Giants. Matchups with the Packers haven’t been overly favorable for enemy quarterbacks, yet Hurts has long been a matchup-proof scorer. He’s 2024’s fantasy QB6 in per-game points. … Deprived of an opportunity to break Eric Dickerson’s all-time single-season rushing record in Week 18, Saquon Barkley ought to approach Sunday’s game with a chip on his shoulder. A volume fiend on a team favored healthily at home, Barkley is the overall RB1 on the Wild Card slate.

Badly missing top CB Jaire Alexander (PCL, I.R.), the Packers got ripped by enemy WRs Justin Jefferson (8/92/0), D.J. Moore (9/86/1), Jalen Nailor (5/81/1), and Jordan Addison (6/69/1) over the last two weeks. This is a green-light spot for both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. … This year’s Packers permitted the league’s 10th-most receptions (93) and eighth-most receiving yards (970) to tight ends, setting up Goedert for a useful Wild Card effort.

Score Prediction: Eagles 24, Packers 17

8:00 PM ET Game

Washington @ Tampa Bay

Team Totals: Bucs 27, Commanders 24

Commanders-Bucs is Wild Card Weekend’s highest-totaled contest in a battle of teams that finished Nos. 4 (TB, 29.5) and 5 (WAS, 28.5) in points per game. Record-setting rookie Jayden Daniels is arguably the most dangerous quarterback left in the NFC, while Tampa Bay coughed up the league’s eighth-highest passer rating (96.6) and third-most fantasy QB points this season. … Back from I.R., Austin Ekeler logged a 60% snap rate in Week 18’s return at Dallas and may be Washington’s top tailback option with Brian Robinson Jr. hitting a late wall. Robinson is scoreless and averaging 3.2 yards per carry over the Commanders’ last four games. Ekeler is Washington’s main receiving RB, while Tampa Bay has yielded the NFL’s sixth-most catches (84) and fifth-most receiving yards (655) to enemy running backs.

In playoff DFS, Daniels-to-Terry McLaurin stacks deserve extreme popularity after 2024’s Bucs served up the NFL’s third-most catches (232), seventh-most yards (2,665), and 10th-most TD grabs (18) to wide receivers. … Zach Ertz lacks sexy factor but finished the regular season No. 8 among tight ends in targets (91), No. 6 in catches (66), and No. 4 in TDs (7). Only seven defenses permitted more fantasy tight end points than the Bucs. … Olamide Zaccheaus took hold of Washington’s No. 2 wideout job down the stretch, registering stat lines of 5/70/2 (8 targets), 8/85/1 (9), and 2/51/0 (5) on playing-time rates of 69%, 76%, and 69% in Weeks 16-18. This is a fun spot to tee up Zaccheaus in his expanded role. … The Commanders run a WR rotation behind McLaurin and Zaccheaus involving Dyami Brown, Luke McCaffrey, and Jamison Crowder. They’re all dart throws on postseason DFS slates.

Baker Mayfield is on a heater ahead of Sunday night’s potential track meet against the Commanders, over his last five games completing 73% of his passes with a 16:5 TD-to-INT ratio and scintillating 9.0 YPA while averaging nearly 30 rush yards per appearance. Baker was fantasy’s overall QB1 over the season’s final five weeks. … Zooming past Rachaad White as Tampa Bay’s feature back, Bucky Irving logged a season-high 70% of the Bucs’ Week 18 offensive snaps while out-touching White 21 to 0. Washington has given up the NFL’s fourth-most rushing yards (1,935) and 10th-most fantasy points to running backs.

The Commanders appear to be banking on trade-deadline acquisition Marshon Lattimore to lock up Mike Evans, yet a recurring hamstring injury has limited Lattimore to 116 snaps in eight games since his arrival from New Orleans. Lattimore has historically held an edge on Evans, but I’m betting on Evans to win here. … Grasping a near-every-down role down the stretch, rookie Jalen McMillan was fantasy’s overall WR5 over 2024’s final five weeks. McMillan banked a season-high 88% snap rate in Week 18’s win over New Orleans. … Bucs No. 3 wideout Sterling Shepard hasn’t exceeded 20 receiving yards in a game since Week 14. … Cade Otton (knee) hasn’t played since Week 15. Filling in for Otton over the Bucs’ past three games, Payne Durham turned in receiving lines of 5/29/0, 2/36/1, and 2/16/1.

Score Prediction: Commanders 28, Bucs 24

Minnesota @ L.A. Rams

Team Totals: Vikings 25, Rams 22.5

Sam Darnold’s flop in Week 18’s blowout loss to Detroit shakes confidence regarding his Wild Card box-score projection, yet Darnold remains set up for Week 19 success with his supporting cast at full strength facing a Rams defense yielding the league’s fifth-most yards per pass attempt (7.6) and 10th-highest passer rating (95.9) beneath Arizona’s retractable roof. I’m treating Darnold as a boom-or-bust DFS tournament gamble. … Vikings No. 2 RB Cam Akers is averaging a burly 5.4 yards per carry over his last seven appearances, while Aaron Jones seems to have lost steam down the stretch of his age-30 campaign. Nothing stands out particularly positively or negatively about Minnesota’s run-game draw against the Rams, but I’m betting against Jones functioning as a high-volume workhorse here.

Justin Jefferson is averaging 10.5 targets, 7.0 catches, 99.0 yards, and 0.8 TDs over his last six games. He clipped the Rams for 8/115/0 receiving on nine targets in these clubs’ Week 8 meeting. L.A. has allowed the NFL’s fourth-most 20+ yard completions (57); Jefferson leads the league in 20+ yard receiving gains (28). … Jordan Addison is averaging 8.3 targets over his last eight games after averaging 4.7 targets in Weeks 1-10. He ranks No. 4 in the NFL in catches of 40+ yards (6). … The Rams got carved up by Cardinals TE Trey McBride (12/123/1), Seahawks TEs Noah Fant (5/63/1) and A.J. Barner (5/34/1), and Jets TE Tyler Conklin (5/59/0) in their final three regular-season games. After logging a season-high 78% snap rate in Week 18’s loss to Detroit, T.J. Hockenson looks set to cook. … Jalen Nailor merits mention on Wild Card Round DFS tournament slates as Minnesota’s locked-in No. 3 wideout after banking receiving lines of 5/81/1 and 3/53/0 in Weeks 17-18. Nailor regularly hovers in the 50% snap range. He’s cleared 55 yards in just two of 17 appearances.

Matthew Stafford has cleared 190 passing yards just once since Week 12. In Week 19, he’ll draw a Vikings defense that leads the league in blitz frequency (42%), while Stafford ranks No. 7 among 36 qualified quarterbacks in yards per pass attempt (8.7) and No. 9 in passer rating (107.7) versus the blitz. … Rams No. 2 RB Blake Corum’s broken forearm locks Kyren Williams into a potentially massive workload after Packers and Lions running backs combined to tag Minnesota for a 54/276/5 (5.1 YPC) rushing line in Weeks 17-18.

Puka Nacua ranks No. 2 in the league in yards per route run (4.2) over the last eight weeks, while no NFL wide receiver is targeted more frequently versus the blitz. This is an eruption spot for Nacua. … Despite his quiet recent stretch, Cooper Kupp is set up for Wild Card success indoors against a Vikings defense yielding the league’s most receptions (255), second-most yards (3,115), and 10th-most touchdown catches (18) to WRs. Like Nacua, Kupp is a blitz-beating receiver by trade. … No. 3 WR Demarcus Robinson goose-egged in each of the Rams’ last four Stafford-quarterbacked games. … Even with Tyler Higbee (knee) back, Los Angeles seems committed to a three- to four-way tight end rotation also involving Colby Parkinson, Davis Allen, and Hunter Long. Higbee played only 41% of the Rams’ Week 18 offensive snaps against Seattle. This feels like a fantasy situation to avoid.

Score Prediction: Rams 24, Vikings 23