Evan Silva’s Matchups: Week 18

Establish The Run - NFL Premium

CLE @ BAL | CIN @ PIT | CAR @ ATL | WAS @ DAL | CHI @ GB | HOU @ TEN | JAX @ IND | BUF @ NE | NYG @ PHI | NO @ TB | KC @ DEN | LAC @ LV | SEA @ LAR | MIA @ NYJ | SF @ ARI | MIN @ DET

Saturday Doubleheader

4:30 PM ET Game

Cleveland @ Baltimore

The Ravens are fully motivated with the AFC North title and a first-round home game on the line, and the division-rival Steelers playing right after them on Saturday. The Browns are starting Bailey Zappe, who’s on his third team in three seasons. I’m looking at bets that involve Baltimore holding Cleveland to a touchdown or less, as well as lopsided margin-of-victory bets. The Ravens have scored 30 or more points in each of their last 10 victories.

8:00 PM ET Game

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh

At 48 points (-108), the over on Bengals-Steelers is attractive considering Cincinnati is averaging 32.3 points across their last eight games, while Pittsburgh has let up 27.7 PPG since Week 12. The Bengals need a Saturday win plus Sunday losses by both Miami and Denver to qualify for the playoffs. On the other side, Mike Tomlin teams tend to go all-out.

Should Chase Brown (ankle, questionable) sit here, I plan to push chips in on Khalil Herbert in terms of prop bets and DFS.

Sunday 1:00 PM ET Games

Carolina @ Atlanta

To make the postseason, the Falcons need a win over the Panthers plus an (unlikely) Bucs Week 18 loss to the Saints. Either way, expect HC Raheem Morris’ club to go all-out on Sunday from start to finish. Over the last five weeks, Carolina’s defense got eviscerated on the ground by enemy lead backs Bucky Irving (25/152/1), Saquon Barkley (20/124/0), Rico Dowdle (25/149/0), James Conner (15/117/1), and Irving again (20/113/0). This is a balls-to-the-wall Bijan Robinson spot. In terms of yards from scrimmage (rushing plus receiving), I took Robinson to clear 125 at +100, 150 at +205, 175 at +400, and 200 at +750.

Washington @ Dallas

The Commanders are locked into either the NFC’s sixth or seventh playoff seed, while the Cowboys were eliminated.

I have few strong takes on anyone in a battle between teams with questionable motivation. Especially after the Cowboys cut Ezekiel Elliott, however, I do anticipate another hefty workload for Rico Dowdle. Dowdle is averaging 21.8 touches over Dallas’ last six games.

Chicago @ Green Bay

Comments from Packers players suggest HC Matt LaFleur’s team is proactively looking to rest starters. Green Bay and Washington are locked into the NFC’s Nos. 6 and 7 playoff seeds. Chicago’s offense has been incompetent almost all year. This is a stay-away game.

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis

With Anthony Richardson (back) still sidelined and Joe Flacco staying under center, this is a week to bet on a bounce-back performance by Josh Downs after Downs got outproduced by Alec Pierce and Michael Pittman Jr. in Week 17. Downs still leads the Colts in targets (52), catches (39), and first-down gains (22) on 2024 throws from Flacco, while Jacksonville has yielded the league’s fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers.

Buffalo @ New England

I’m not convinced either starting quarterback will finish this game. The Bills are locked into the AFC’s No. 2 seed with nowhere to move and will apparently play Josh Allen only to keep his consecutive starts streak (115) alive. On the other side, rumors suggest the Pats want to showcase sixth-round rookie Joe Milton, a big-armed athlete who made training-camp waves.

N.Y. Giants @ Philadelphia

Giants-Eagles sets up as a hotspot for Tyrone Tracy Jr. against a Philly team so intent on sitting starters that they’re depriving Saquon Barkley a chance to break the all-time single-season rushing record.

Averaging 16.3 touches over his last four games, converted college WR Tracy’s all-purpose skill set makes him an attractive rushing-plus-receiving yardage bet at 75 (+100), 100 (+255), and especially 125 (+600) against a resting Eagles team.

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay

Everyone and their mother is on Mike Evans banking five catches and 85 yards in Week 18, but what about the guy throwing to him?

At home against a listless Saints defense, I’m taking the over on Baker Mayfield’s 252.5 passing-yardage total.

Houston @ Tennessee

The Texans are locked into the AFC’s No. 4 seed, while the Titans plan on playing BOTH Will Levis and Mason Rudolph in the same game. This doesn’t add up to a serious affair, although prop betting and DFS markets could become very interesting if Tyjae Spears (concussion) gets ruled out and Tony Pollard (ankle) plays.

4:25 PM ET Games

San Francisco @ Arizona

Dual-threat astronaut Josh Dobbs will start in place of Brock Purdy (elbow) against a dead Cardinals team, albeit with questionable availability from George Kittle (ankle, hamstring), Deebo Samuel (rib, wrist), and Ricky Pearsall (illness, chest).

The big-game candidate I’m eyeing here is Isaac Guerendo, who’s practiced fully this week and averaged 16.7 touches, 100.7 yards, and 0.7 TDs over his last three appearances.

Kansas City @ Denver

Having clinched the AFC’s No. 1 seed and lacking anything to play for, the Chiefs visit Denver fielding a backup-filled lineup. Expect both Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco to sit and Samaje Perine to play sparingly. Carson Steele’s rushing and TD props stand out.

Bo Nix to throw for two-plus touchdown passes (-110) and three-plus (+360) both pop as playable at home in a meaningful game for Denver against reserve Chiefs defenders.

Seattle @ L.A. Rams

Blake Corum has a chance to be a volume workhorse here with the Rams locked into Nos. 3/4 playoff seeding regardless of Sunday’s outcome, and with Seattle already eliminated.

L.A. Chargers @ Las Vegas

The Chargers are locked into the AFC’s No. 5/6 seed, and HC Jim Harbaugh’s motivation to go all-out against the Raiders is fair to question after Justin Herbert, J.K. Dobbins, and Ladd McConkey endured seasons flush with bumps and bruises.

I don’t question Raiders HC Antonio Pierce’s Week 18 motivation at all with his job security hanging by a thread. Expect all-out performances from Aidan O’Connell, rookie record setter Brock Bowers, No. 1 WR Jakobi Meyers, and surprise late-season sensation Ameer Abdullah. The over on Meyers’ 57.5-yard receiving prop (-125) feels safe.

Miami @ N.Y. Jets

The Fins look set to trot out Tyler Huntley again after Huntley netted Week 17’s fantasy QB11 finish, this time against a Jets defense missing two-time Pro Bowl DT Quinnen Williams (hamstring) and top CB Sauce Gardner (hamstring).

In Week 17, Huntley showed a legitimate rapport with Tyreek Hill; the duo connected on a perfect 9-of-9 targets for 105 yards. However, Miami’s skill-position corps looks to be nearing full strength with Jaylen Waddle (knee) due back, and Jonnu Smith and De’Von Achane already healthy. I’m not convinced Hill will see nine targets again. I do think Huntley offers some DFS tournament appeal with all of his weapons ready to go in what is still a meaningful game for Miami.

Sunday Night Football

Minnesota @ Detroit

I’ve reached a trustworthy stage regarding Minnesota’s offense and realize Detroit’s injury-depleted defense is a pushover unit, having permitted point totals of 34 (49ers), 17 (Bears), 48 (Bills), and 31 (Packers) over their last four games. Indoors at Ford Field in literally the most meaningful game all season, I like the Vikings to go over their 27-point team total in Detroit.

No NFL defense blitzes at a higher rate than Minnesota’s (38%), while Amon-Ra St. Brown is arguably the league’s premier blitz-beating receiver. It should come as no surprise, then, that St. Brown has clapped the Vikings for stat lines of 8/112/1, 7/144/1, and 12/106/1 in three meetings since Brian Flores took over as Minnesota’s defensive play-caller. Even at -150 odds, I like the over on St. Brown securing 6.5 grabs on Sunday night.