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2164: Predicting Social Turmoil- Peter Turchin on Cliodynamics and America's Future Part 1
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Jason discusses history and it's complexities with complexity scientist guest Peter Turchin. Jason also updates listeners on recent events, including a collective mastermind in Orlando and an upcoming talk at the Rebel Capitalist event. He promotes the Empowered Investor Pro membership, highlighting its benefits and exclusive monthly Zoom meetings, featuring guest Tom Wheelwright discussing tax-free wealth. Hartman shares a property investment opportunity in Huntsville, Alabama, emphasizing its potential for high returns through income, depreciation, equity growth, and leverage. He encourages listeners to use the free Property Tracker software https://www.propertytracker.com for investment analysis. Join the monthly Zoom meeting via https://www.jasonhartman.com/wednesday.
Jason then welcomes Peter Turchin, a complexity scientist specializing in cliodynamics, accurately predicted in 2010 that the US would face social disintegration around 2020. Cliodynamics combines cultural evolution, economic history, and mathematical modeling to analyze historical processes and predict future trends. Turchin's models identified elite overproduction—too many elites vying for limited power—as a key factor in societal breakdowns. The resulting competition among elites destabilizes political systems, leading to increased social unrest. Turchin's insights into the dynamics of wealth and power in societies provide a scientific approach to understanding and potentially mitigating future crises.
#PeterTurchin #Cliodynamics #ComplexityScience #SocialDisintegration #EliteOverproduction #HistoricalTrends #PoliticalInstability #MathematicalModeling #CulturalEvolution #WealthInequality
Key Takeaways:
Jason's editorial
1:19 Join our FREE Empowered Investor Pro monthly Zoom meeting
3:02 Amazing Hunstville property proforma that's IDEAL
Peter Turchin's interview part 1
7:52 Introducing Peter and Cliodynamics
11:49 2010 Analysis of historical data
13:48 Elite overproduction: 4 different powers and America and plutocracy
18:29 Where do we go from here
21:45 Why having many wealthy people is bad for society
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