Pre-Trading Thoughts

Al Ahly Pharos

The Head of EBRD in Egypt said that the bank has pumped USD500 million into Egypt YTD, and expects the bank's financing to reach USD1.2 billion by year-end.

The Cabinet has turned down a proposal from the Supply Ministry to raise the price of subsidized sugar to EGP18 from EGP12.6 per kilo.

The government will not be importing sugar for a while and the private sector is expected to import some 250k tons of sugar over the next three months.

Suez Canal revenue continued to decline in May, falling some 64.3% YoY to record USD337.8 million.

Egyptian banks’ holdings of sovereign debt are about 554% of their capital.

The Finance Ministry will release its 2024-2030 tax policy document for public consultation in the coming weeks.

Egypt is preparing to assess the final numbers of immigrants, refugees, and foreigners, as well as their geographical distribution in the country, and their economic impact, during the coming year.

The Head of the Pharmaceuticals Division at the Federation of Chambers of Commerce expects an increase in the prices of pharmaceutical products by the end of July with the new production being manufactured, indicating that the average increases are between 20% and 25%.

We updated our FV for SWDY to EGP44.88/share, up from the previous EGP34.96/share. SWDY is trading at FY24e P/E of 7.9x and EV/EBITDA of 4.0x.

ESRS’s (FV: EGP97.02, OW) general assembly approved the decrease of the company’s capital by writing off 910,481 treasury shares with a face value of EGP4.6 million.

Egypt's aluminum exports surged 15% YoY to USD259 million in 4M 2024.

We raised our FV of EFIH to EGP35.35/share, up from EGP23.50/share. EFIH is currently trading at 2024f P/E of 22.9x and EV/EBITDA of 15.1x.

EKHO sent a release announcing the resumption of the gas supply and operations at the factories of its subsidiary, AlexFert, after the natural gas network pressure stabilized.

EGCH announced that the subscription for the second phase of the remaining shares, amounting to 3,381,420 shares, was covered 23x with an allocation ratio of 0.04 for each share.

CIRA is considering borrowing around EGP600 million from the National Bank from Egypt to partially finance the establishment of the first phase of Saxony University.

MASR (FV: EGP5.24, OW) is partnering with CIRA’s subsidiaries, Al Ahly CIRA and Eduhive, to establish Lemania Swiss International School in Taj City, and is collaborating with Blue Ribbon to establish Klub Kayan in Taj City.

Investment management firm Act Financial will begin trading on the EGX by the last week of July, following the closure of the subscription period on 23 July. Act Financial is to offer around 32% of the company by offering around 360 million shares at an IPO price of EGP2.9/share.

Weekly Commodities Update

| | Last Price | WoW Change, %
| Brent, USD/bbl | 79.6 | -2.5%
| Diesel-HSFO Spread, USD/ton | 269 | 0.4%
| Egypt Urea, USD/ton | 343 | 5.4%
| Polyethylene, USD/ton | 1,030 | 0.0%
| Polypropylene, USD/ton | 995 | 1.0%
| Iron Ore 65%, USD/ton | 128 | -3.0%
| Steel/Iron Ore Spreads, USD/ton | 385 | 2.0%
| LME Copper Cash Price, USD/ton | 9,638 | -2.8%
| LME Aluminum Cash Price, USD/ton | 2,521 | -3.3%
| Egyptia Retail Cement, EGP/ton | 2,040 | 0.0%
| Steam Coal FOB Newcastle Australia, USD/ton | 132 | -7.7%
| SMP, USD/MT | 2,722 | 3.5%
| Last price may vary week over week in some indices due to time difference