Stocks Cavalier… Bonds Concerned

McAlvany Weekly Commentary

90 Chinese Military Aircraft Enter Taiwan Territory Stock Prices So High It Would Take Till 2060 For Earnings To Catch Up Because Gold Video - vaulted.gold "The inflation target is close, but we're not there yet. And it's not as if we've had any form of deflation where we've seen a decrease in prices, so the fact of the matter is we're just maintaining an elevated level, and we're talking about households that are not seeing any relief. The tourniquet isn't getting turned any tighter, but neither is it loosening at all." —David McAlvany Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. David, I was laying in bed and I was just thinking about you guys, because twice a year your entire family goes with four other families to Moab. You guys go to the desert and you ride mountain bikes, you talk, you have campfires. I just see how rejuvenated you are when you get back. But I was laying in bed and I was thinking, it's sort of lamenting this time because I knew you were gone this weekend. I knew the families were getting together, but I also knew your eldest son. This is his first year in college, and I was thinking, "Gosh, I wonder how they're doing. I wonder how he's doing missing that weekend for the first time in, what, 12, 13, 14 years? David: Yeah, about 14 years. So I mean, whether it's rappelling or canyoneering or rafting, we were always out there once in the spring, once in the fall. Kevin: So twice a year you guys do this. David: And it's an amazing adventure. We see all these little kids and they used to be knee-high to nothing. Kevin: Now they're going to college. David: Right. So he's not going to make it home for Thanksgiving and he's not going to make it home for Moab. But we created a little surprise for my wife. Kevin: That's what you said. I just heard that— David: He flew in to Denver and then he drove down from there. Kevin: He came in. Oh, that's so good. So he was there. What a surprise for your wife. David: It was amazing. It was absolutely amazing. Kevin: Don't you love those events in life where it's like a little bonus. Tolkien, J.R.R. Tolkien, used to call that a eucatastrophe where you create a good catastrophe in the story. Just at the very moment when everything seems like it's going to fall apart, you have something dive in and completely change the narrative. David: And I think none of us really like market surprises if it is a loss or if it is a catastrophe. But we love surprise if it's a gain. Oh, wow. Check that out. Kevin: I'm going to shift gears here because you just talked about market surprises and every year you typically would go to the Grant's conference and Druckenmiller, from what I understand, was talking at the Grant's conference this year. Is that correct? David: Yeah, and always a host of interesting characters with varied experiences, various points of insight into the market, some fixed income, others trading volatility, others currencies, equities. But Grant's is really about interest rates and a dialogue around money, the cost of money, and what moves markets. So he brings in this wide array of people, and it's always super, super exciting and insightful. Kevin: Well, and the reason I bring that up is because it's either a catastrophe or a eucatastrophe depending on what side of the market you were trading on. I think it would be worth you retelling the story of how Druckenmiller made his name with Soros, and how they broke the pound—his pretty heavy duty bet. And it worked for them. It didn't work for everybody. David: No, that's right. If you're on the other side of the bet, it was painful. The other people on the other side of the bet were the Bank of England, and four times in Stanley's life, he's lost a billion dollars in a day. Kevin: Wow. David: In a day. Kevin: He'd lost, four times. David: Correct. Kevin: That's called a catastrophe,