Major US Cities’ Pension Risks Are Easing, But Far From Retired Moody's Talks

15:08

Robust revenue gains and easing expense growth will buoy not-for-profit hospitals over the next 12 months, while state and local taxes will play a growing role in funding many of the nation’s transit systems. Guests : Nansis Hayek, Analyst - Moody’s Ratings; Rita Strauss, AVP-Analyst - Moody’s Ratings; Matt Butler, Vice President - Moody’s Ratings Host : Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President - Moody’s Ratings Related content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users and subscribers): Not-for-Profit and Public Healthcare – US: 2025 Outlook - Stable as profitability rises modestly on revenue growth, cost controls Mass Transit – US: 2025 Outlook - Stable as taxes and state funding continue to support operations…

Moody's Talks - Muniland

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Rising insurance costs indicate growing climate risk for state and local governments 17:31

hace 22 weeks17:31

17:31

The availability and affordability of home insurance is declining as damage from hurricanes and wildfires becomes more frequent. That could have negative implications for property values and tax revenues, particularly in the most disaster-prone states. Guests : Michael Wertz, VP - Senior Analyst, Moody’s Ratings; Denise Rappmund, VP - Senior Analyst, Moody’s Ratings Host : Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Ratings Related content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users and subscribers): State and Local Governments – US: Rising insurance costs indicate growing climate risk to state and local governments…

Moody's Talks - Muniland

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US public schools grapple with depleted federal aid, rising salaries and falling enrollment 14:01

hace 26 weeks14:01

14:01

The operating environment for K-12 districts is getting tighter as $190 billion in pandemic support ends, employee costs climb, and declining birthrates reduce the school-age population. Guest : David Levett, VP-Sr. Analyst - Moody’s Ratings Host : Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Ratings Related content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users and subscribers): Public K-12 School Districts – US: Tightening operating environment will challenge a growing minority of districts…

Moody's Talks - Muniland

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Ballooning stadium subsidies amplify risk for US states and local governments 12:47

hace 31 weeks12:47

12:47

Stadium projects are often less financially beneficial than projected for the governments subsidizing them, though a shift toward multipurpose facilities brings the potential for enhanced returns. Guest : Greg Sobel, AVP-Analyst - Moody’s Ratings Host : Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Ratings Related content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users and subscribers): States and Local Governments – US: Ballooning stadium subsidies amplify risk amid potential economic development…

Moody's Talks - Muniland

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NCAA settlement and declining enrollment shift the higher education landscape 12:40

hace 35 weeks12:40

12:40

Higher expenses after a $2.78 billion agreement on student athlete payments pose a credit risk for smaller colleges, which already face rising competition from larger, cheaper institutions. Guests : Patrick Ronk, AVP-Analyst - Moody’s Ratings; Nicole Serrano, VP-Sr Credit Officer - Moody’s Ratings Host : Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Ratings Related content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users and subscribers): Higher Education – US: Settlement in NCAA antitrust cases leads to colleges paying athletes, a credit negative Private Colleges and Universities – US: Small institutions in Northeast and Midwest face credit stress as enrollment declines…

Moody's Talks - Muniland

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Revenue shortfall leaves California facing a budget squeeze 15:48

hace 39 weeks15:48

15:48

Spending cuts of $25 billion will ease the deficit, though out-migration of high earners remains a drag on revenue. K-12 education will avoid significant cuts, but is vulnerable if the economy slows. Guests : Matt Butler, VP-Sr Credit Officer - Moody’s Ratings; Helen Cregger, VP-Sr Credit Officer - Moody’s Ratings Host : Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Ratings Related content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users and subscribers): California’s deficit grows, increasing importance of strong budget solutions California school districts are prepared for state budget cuts due to liquidity and strong reserves…

Moody's Talks - Muniland

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Insurance crisis poses credit risks for hurricane-prone Florida and Louisiana 15:44

hace 44 weeks15:44

15:44

As climate issues mount, residents face escalating property insurance costs and, in some cases, difficulty obtaining coverage at all, which threatens to hurt the economy and curtail tax collections. Guests : Bola Kushimo, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Ratings and Denise Rappmund, Vice President - Senior Analyst, Moody’s Ratings Host : Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Ratings Related content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users and subscribers): State and Local Government - Louisiana: Climate risks and insurance costs pose challenges for state and local governments Florida (State of): Florida insurance exposure reaches peak of 1% of GDP as state increasingly supports sector Property & Casualty Insurance – US: Homeowners insurers aim to boost profits as weather-related losses, inflation take toll For more, listen to our Focus on Finance episode: US homeowners insurers raise prices as inflation and weather-related losses take a toll…

Moody's Talks - Muniland

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Graying of America poses financial risks for many local governments 11:24

hace 48 weeks11:24

11:24

Local governments face a loss of economic vitality and tax revenue as the working-age population declines. Meanwhile, a tighter labor supply remains a chronic issue for the hospital sector. Guests : Frank Mamo, Vice President - Senior Analyst, Moody’s Ratings and Dan Steingart, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Ratings Host : Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Ratings Related content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users and subscribers): Cities and Counties – US: Declining working-age population will constrain revenue and test adaptability…

Moody's Talks - Muniland

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Intensifying droughts turn up the heat on US state and local governments 11:15

hace 52 weeks11:15

11:15

As water shortages threaten to curb economic growth, governments in many parts of the country are stepping up investment in water management and conservation. Guests : Sunny Zhu, AVP – Analyst, Moody’s Ratings; Maddie Atkins, Analyst - Moody’s Ratings Host : Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Ratings Related content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users and subscribers): States – US: Effective management will be crucial in lessening credit risks from water stress…

Moody's Talks - Muniland

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Red Sea disruptions reshape cargo dynamics on America's East and Gulf Coasts 12:28

hace 1 year12:28

12:28

Suspension of commercial shipping in the Suez Canal and reduced activity in the drought-afflicted Panama Canal have the potential to reduce revenue at key US ports. Guest : Moses Kopmar, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service Host : Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Investors Service Related content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users and subscribers): Ports – US: Red Sea shipping disruptions have potential to reduce East Coast cargo volume Ports – US: 2024 Outlook - Stable as cargo volume grows slowly in difficult macro environment…

Moody's Talks - Muniland

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Major US cities’ pension risks are easing, but far from retired 14:17

hace 1 year14:17

14:17

Pension liabilities for large local governments are falling because of higher interest rates. This dynamic — and greater contributions —bodes well for credit quality, though investment risk lingers. Guest : Tom Aaron, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service Host : Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Investors Service Related content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users and subscribers): Local Government – US: Balance sheet leverage declining for large, pension-heavy local governments…

Moody's Talks - Muniland

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Higher education outlook returns to stable 9:49

hace 1 year9:49

9:49

While pandemic pain lingers, our higher education outlook has improved to stable from negative as revenue grows, margins steady and balance sheets remain generally healthy. Guest : Chris Collins, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service Host : Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Investors Service Related content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users and subscribers): Higher Education – US: 2024 Outlook - Revised to stable as revenue growth closes gap on expenses…

Moody's Talks - Muniland

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Hospitals’ prospects improve after severe struggles starting with the pandemic 10:41

hace 1 year10:41

10:41

We have revised our outlook for the US not-for-profit healthcare sector to stable from negative as a recovery takes hold, largely driven by a slowdown in the growth rate of labor costs. Guest : Matt Cahill, Assistant Vice President – Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service Host : Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Investors Service Related content on Moodys.com (may only be available to subscribers) : Not-for-Profit and Public Healthcare – US: 2024 Outlook – Revised to stable as financial recovery gains momentum…

Moody's Talks - Muniland

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US states get pension relief; English local governments face mounting financial stress 16:23

hace 1 year16:23

16:23

States’ pension liabilities, a source of credit stress for years, are declining and providing financial flexibility. In England, some local governments are grappling with substantial deficits. Guests : Sunny Zhu, Assistant Vice President – Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service and Zoe Jankel, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service Host : Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Investors Service Related content on Moodys.com (may only be available to subscribers) : States – US: Ability to service long-term liabilities and fixed costs improves Local Governments – UK: More to fail as weak governance amplifies the impact of property and rates cycles…

Moody's Talks - Muniland

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San Francisco’s outlook dims as remote work cools downtown activity 15:11

hace 1 year15:11

15:11

With a slower economy in the central business district, the city projects deficits and we’ve changed our outlook to negative. We’ve done the same for Bay Area Rapid Transit with its ridership drop. Guests : Joe Manoleas, Assistant Vice President - Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service and Maddie Atkins, Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service Host : Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Investors Service Related content on Moodys.com (may only be available to subscribers) : City & County of San Francisco, CA: Update to credit analysis following revision of outlook to negative San Francisco Bay Area Rapid Transit District, CA: Update to credit analysis following revision of outlook to negative…

Moody's Talks - Muniland

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Recreational marijuana sales provide modest revenue lift for states 7:51

hace 2 years7:51

7:51

States with legal recreational marijuana are generating tax dollars for various needs, but no more than Nevada’s 2.5% of state revenue. Policy changes, however, have the potential to boost the amount. Guest : Greg Sobel, Assistant Vice President – Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service Host : Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Investors Service Related content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users and subscribers) : State and Local Government – US: Revenue from marijuana sales will remain modest, barring major policy changes…

Moody's Talks - Muniland

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College closures gradually increase as higher education faces myriad challenges 10:53

hace 2 years10:53

10:53

With bankruptcy to shed debt and stay open largely unviable, colleges grappling with falling enrollment and rising costs are increasingly closing. In a shutdown, bondholder outcomes are a wild card with the amount of reserves on hand and value of real estate assets playing a role. Guest : Susan Shaffer, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service Host : Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Investors Service Related content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users and subscribers): Higher Education – US: Closures, while still rare, will gradually increase even as other options are explored…

Moody's Talks - Muniland

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Artificial intelligence’s credit effects unfold for universities; US ports’ outlook remains stable 19:22

hace 2 years19:22

19:22

ChatGPT’s rollout has sharpened universities’ focus on AI pitfalls such as cheating and benefits like improved educational outcomes. Plus, US ports’ cargo volumes are way down, but business models and finances provide stability. Guests: Patrick Ronk, Analyst – Moody’s Investors Service and Moses Kopmar, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service Host: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Investors Service Related content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users and subscribers): Higher Education – Global: Artificial intelligence poses academic integrity risks, but provides opportunity for innovation and efficiencies Public Ports – US: Outlook still stable but slowing economic growth weighs on cargo demand…

Moody's Talks - Muniland

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Detroit’s former bankruptcy czar says restructuring worked for the city 30:23

hace 2 years30:23

30:23

Kevyn Orr, who led Detroit’s 2013 bankruptcy filing, weighs in on why the landmark event enabled a turnaround for the city and recounts some of the restructuring’s peculiarities, including Renoir’s involvement. At Moody’s, the bankruptcy marked such an inflection point that it prompted changes in our credit analysis. Naomi Richman, a senior vice president in our Public Finance Group, joins the podcast at about the 22:30 mark to comment on those shifts and other reverberations from the Detroit case, while analyst David Strungis discusses the city’s current credit trajectory. Guests : Kevyn Orr, Partner-in-Charge, U.S. Offices, Jones Day; Naomi Richman, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Investors Service; David Strungis, Vice President-Senior Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service Host : Nick Samuels – Senior Vice President, Moody’s Investors Service Related content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users or subscribers): City of Detroit, MI: Update to credit analysis following upgrade to Ba1 positive Detroit (City of): Dedicated reserve will help Detroit ramp up contributions, but pension costs will spike if assets underperform…

Moody's Talks - Muniland

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‘Forever chemicals’ are a financial hazard for water utilities, cities and manufacturers 14:37

hace 2 years14:37

14:37

With an EPA proposal, US municipal utilities and cities are facing mounting costs to remove toxic PFAS, also known as forever chemicals, from drinking water. Yet the utilities’ ability to raise customer rates to recoup costs will limit credit risks. Meanwhile, companies that make the chemicals or products with them are dealing with a barrage of lawsuits similar to what hit Big Tobacco and opioid makers. Guests: Helen Cregger, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Ryan Patton, Assistant Vice President – Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service; John Rogers, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Investors Service Host: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Investors Service Related content on Moodys.com (may only be available to subscribers): ESG – Global: ‘Forever chemicals’ present significant credit risk for certain companies Water and Wastewater Utilities – US: EPA proposal to reduce ‘forever chemicals’ in drinking water will raise costs…

Moody's Talks - Muniland

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Global electric vehicle surge is a bumpy ride for insurance, auto finance, state highway bonds 22:59

hace 2 years22:59

22:59

Moody’s analysts discuss accelerating electric vehicle sales’ effects on US auto insurers and auto finance captives, and implications for state fuel taxes. Speakers: Matthias Heck, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Inna Bodeck, VP – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service; Jasper Cooper – VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Ted Hampton, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service Hosts: Nicholas Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Investors Service; Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service Related content on Moodys.com/autotransformation (may only be available to registered users or subscribers): Electrification momentum is strong, automakers must invest to stay competitive US auto finance captives’ evolving portfolios will carry more electric vehicles and greater risk Auto insurers’ costs and pricing will rise as electric vehicles grow more popular Electric vehicles raise carbon transition risk for states' highway revenue bonds…

Moody's Talks - Muniland

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Most US universities can handle recent drops in endowment values 14:10

hace 2 years14:10

14:10

Weak investment returns have chipped away at endowment values, but universities manage endowments with expectations of volatility, easing some of the adverse credit effects. Guests: Liz Clark, vice president for policy and research, National Association of College and University Business Officers ( NACUBO ) and Susan Shaffer, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service Host: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Investors Service…

Moody's Talks - Muniland

1
Hospitals face increased financial pain 20:22

hace 2 years20:22

20:22

Hospital credit stress is not going away as labor costs, largely driven by a nursing shortage, drive up expenses and capacity constraints squeeze revenue. Guests: Brad Spielman, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service and Dan Steingart, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service Host: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Investors Service Related content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users or subscribers): Not-For-Profit and Public Healthcare – US: 2023 Outlook - Negative as inflation, labor costs continue to drive expenses higher Hospitals – US: Developments to Watch: 2023…

Moody's Talks - Muniland

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Prospects weaken for US airports, toll roads and ports 20:11

hace 2 years20:11

20:11

The faltering economy threatens to slow growth in travel and cargo volumes, which underpin credit quality for the three infrastructure sectors. All three, however, have strong balance sheets and other advantages that will help them navigate the difficulties. Guests : Ursula Cassinerio, Assistant Vice President – Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service and Moses Kopmar, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service Host : Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Investors Service Related content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users or subscribers): Airports – US: 2023 Outlook – Turns stable as capacity constraints, macro conditions limit recovery Toll Roads – US: 2023 Outlook – Turns stable as traffic and revenue growth slow with US economy Public Ports – US: 2023 Outlook – Turns stable as cargo and volume growth slows with GDP growth Public Power Electric Utilities – US: 2023 Outlook – Stable as utilities poised to raise rates if needed to cover rising costs…

Moody's Talks - Muniland

1
New York City Comptroller Brad Lander talks social bonds, boosting reserves and the city’s economy 18:22

hace 2 years18:22

18:22

Muniland welcomes New York City’s comptroller to discuss the city’s first social bond, affordable housing, his push to increase budget reserves and what’s next for the city’s economy. Guest: Brad Lander, New York City comptroller Host: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Investors Service

Moody's Talks - Muniland

1
Higher education and mass transit outlooks turn negative for 2023 21:27

hace 2 years21:27

21:27

Macroeconomic conditions, enrollment troubles and muted revenue growth will continue to hinder colleges and universities. For mass transit, a weak ridership recovery and looming end to federal pandemic aid signal more tough times ahead. Guests : Susan Shaffer, Vice President-Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Jared Brewster, Vice President-Senior Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service; Baye Larsen, Vice President-Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service Host: Nick Samuels – Senior Vice President, Moody’s Investors Service Related content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users or subscribers): Higher Education – US: 2023 Outlook - Negative as revenue rebound stalls and expenses surge Mass Transit – US: 2023 Outlook – Negative with low ridership and looming federal aid cliff…

Moody's Talks - Muniland

1
Chicago takes it up a notch 13:18

hace 2 years13:18

13:18

A one-notch upgrade has Chicago moving into investment grade. The city is set to benefit from a policy calling for greater pension contributions aimed at preventing growth in its unfunded pension burden. Guests: Rachel Cortez, Associate Managing Director, Moody’s Investors Service and David Levett, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service Host: Nick Samuels – Senior Vice President, Moody’s Investors Service Related content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users or subscribers): City of Chicago, IL: Update to credit analysis following upgrade to Baa3 stable…

Moody's Talks - Muniland

1
Biden administration’s student debt relief plan poised to benefit colleges and universities 18:39

hace 2 years18:39

18:39

A less-discussed part of the plan, which revamps income-driven undergraduate loan payments, will boost enrollment. Plus, Florida municipal issuers have tools to limit Hurricane Ian credit risks. Guests: Patrick Ronk, Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service; Lauren Von Bargen, Assistant Vice President - Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service; Val Gomez, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service Host: Nick Samuels – Senior Vice President, Moody’s Investors Service Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): Higher Education – US: Student loan forgiveness is mildly positive, but repayment changes offer bigger benefit Public Finance – Florida: Federal aid, insurance proceeds and liquidity mitigate Hurricane Ian's costs…

Moody's Talks - Muniland

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US states positioned to ward off effects of a recession 18:05

hace 2 years18:05

18:05

With flush rainy day funds and flexibility to cut costs, states are poised to avoid credit stress if a severe economic tailspin or even a recession takes hold. Plus, housing finance agencies’ credit quality remains strong, but the HFAs face challenges in the current economic environment. Guests: Sunny Zhu, Assistant Vice President-Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service; Pisei Chea, Vice President-Senior Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service; Rachael McDonald, Associate Managing Director, Moody’s Investors Service; Omar Ouzidane, Vice President-Senior Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service Host: Nick Samuels – Senior Vice President, Moody’s Investors Service Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): States – US: Strong fiscal governance positions states to withstand high inflation, possible recession States – US: Debt, pension and OPEB liabilities all up in fiscal 2021 State Housing Finance Agencies – US: HFAs are well positioned for continued solid performance in changing market conditions…

Moody's Talks - Muniland

1
Inflation set to drive up state and local government costs for labor, hurricane recovery 18:41

hace 3 years18:41