American Soccer Analysis is an occasional podcast with a focus on soccer made or played in America, especially NWSL and MLS, from a numbers and analytics perspective. The rotating cadre of hosts bring an enthusiasm, statistical acumen, and deep understanding of the game that can be rivaled only by Alexi Lalas and Carli Lloyd.
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The Washington Spirit have made it to the NWSL Championship, despite massive injuries to key players in the back end of the season. Can they keep this momentum going, or will the Orlando Pride stop them in their tracks? André Carlisle of Hey Spirits, Diaspora United and Beyond the Vaudevillian Cane returns to reflect on the Spirit season that was, …
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The Orlando Pride are preparing to play the biggest game club history on Saturday, the culmination of a process that began more than two years ago. Team vice president and GM Haley Carter came on to talk about the journey the team has taken under her and Seb Hines's leadership, what philosophy they apply to every decision, and what the 2024 Pride r…
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This isn’t a tabloidPor Reel Big Fish - Topic
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Well there you have it! The Washington Spirit will play the Orlando Pride at CPKC Stadium in Kansas City on Saturday for the NWSL Championship. Each semifinal that got them there were scintillating contests, filled with drama, individual heroics, and masterful team play. How did the Spirit and Pride get past Gotham and the Current? We will be in Ka…
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The top four go in as favorites, and the top four leave as semifinalists. There were no upsets in the NWSL quarterfinals, as Orlando, Washington, Gotham, and Kansas City all moved on. Some games were unprecedented blowouts, like the Pride's demolition of the Red Stars (0:57). Others were tighter affair than anticipated, as the Current's defeat of t…
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In Part 2 of our NWSL quarterfinals preview, we take a look at Sunday's doubleheader. According to one projection model, Bay FC actually have a decent chance to upset the Washington Spirit. Will their new-look midfield and Racheal Kundananji's heroics puncture Washington's injury-riddled squad? The Portland Thorns are all good vibes right now, havi…
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Donald Trump would ban the best of 3Por Kieran Doyle-Davis
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The playoffs are set! The top four finished the season strong and look like they'll make it to the semifinals with ease. Or will they? The guys preview all four quarterfinal matchups, and wonder where we could see upsets. Do Bay FC have what it takes to get past an injury- and suspension-rattled Washington Spirit? Could the Portland Thorns put some…
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Then, they break down their picks for the NWSL awards slate. Most of these are no-brainers, but they make a case for some down-ballot candidates, followed by an in-depth discussion of how to approach Defender of the Year. Join our Patreon for only $6/month to get all of our exclusive bonus content! Art by Eli Elbogen Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Da…
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Playoffs, they’re here!Por Kieran Doyle-Davis
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Racing Louisville grabbed all three points against the Portland Thorns thanks to a late corner header from Taylor Flint. Their playoff hopes are still alive, but is it too little too late? The guys cap off the episode with this playoff six-pointer (41:20). Before that, they run through playoff scenarios for the top four (1:01), ruminate on the two …
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The Chicago Red Stars own one of the worst xG differentials in league history. Only the Utah Royals have played worse in total this season. But Chicago just clinched a playoff berth, and look poised to finish the year in sixth place on a mere 1.3 points per game. Only four other teams have ever finished sixth or higher with that points total. Can i…
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The boys poured out the good stuff and got into awards voting as they decide the actual ASA awards ballot in real time.Por Kieran Doyle-Davis
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EXPECTED OWN GOALS: NWSL Week 23 -- The Portland Thorns, Racing Louisville, and the Dangling Thread of the Playoff Line
We have got some things to cover, here! The guys get into the news of Angel City's fines and suspensions for salary cap violations, the firing of former Houston Dash head coach Fran Alonso, the absurdity of the Chicago Red Stars conceding at least three xG for the second time in three weeks, Bay FC's four-minute meltdown, and the Orlando Pride's hi…
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A scrappy 1-0 victory on the road to the Seattle Reign may not look like much, but Bay FC are creeping closer and closer to a playoff berth, only a few months removed from looking like one of the worst teams in the NWSL. The guys dig into all of the ways the team has managed to improve since early June, from trusting new players to Albertin Montoya…
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Ben, Harrison, and Kieran talk the latest MLS playoff odds to descend from the Heavens above (Matthias’ laptop), and some unsung heroes from the 22U22 nominee pool.Por Kieran Doyle-Davis
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Oh, did you forget that the Current can gut your favorite team like a fish? After a few games of sputtering defensive performance, KC's new back line is locked in and Temwa Chawinga is, well, Temwa Chawinga. Their 3-0 battering of the Washington Spirit was a bit lucky, but was also a scary proposition for any team that will face Kansas City in the …
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We've got two games to cover this week! One was the matchup of the weekend on paper, but fizzled out to a 0-0 draw between the Pride and Current. The other ended up with significant playoff implications, as the Red Stars snatched a 1-0 road win against the Thorns and shored up their postseason odds, while Portland continued their freefall. What can…
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Ben, Harrison, and Kieran talk about the Boca era in Atlanta and how they would go about rebuilding the team who invented soccer. No trivia, but we hear from Caleb Porter.Por Kieran Doyle-Davis
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Alex Morgan has retired. As yet another titan of the sport walks into the sunset, the guys reflect on what Morgan's career truly meant beyond the goals and trophies. Then, after rounding up NWSL results across the weekend, they dive into Bay's 1-0 defeat of Racing Louisville. Have Abby Dahlkemper and Penelope Hocking helped Bay find the answers? Is…
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The Orlando Pride continued their unbeaten streak on Sunday, taking down Gotham FC 2-0 after a monsoon nearly flooded Inter&Co Stadium. Gotham was unable to gain any separation from its peers in the top 4. But does it portend anything serious? Eric and Evan talk to Gotham reporter Jenna Tonelli about Gotham's performance, the magic of Ella Stevens,…
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Harrison gets fired up about the MLSPA, Ben thinks Columbus is the best MLS team of all time, and Kieran asks some trivia.Por Kieran Doyle-Davis
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EXPECTED OWN GOALS: NWSL Week 17 -- Your Spirit Has a Powerful Current Running from Washington to Kansas City
Jonatan Giráldez has officially entered the NWSL chat. The Washington Spirit took down the Kansas City Current 4-1, and for a brief second, one had to wonder if the wheels were coming off of the most dominant squad in the league. This game had everything. Six defenders to handle Debinha and Chawinga! Otherworldly finishing from Trinity Rodman! A ne…
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The NWSL Players Association has just signed a new collective bargaining agreement, which may be one of the most historically significant labor deals in sports history. The elimination of the draft, universal guaranteed contracts and free agency, player consent for trades, and massive increases in minimum salaries without corresponding max salaries…
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The NWSL is back, baby!!! After six agonizing weeks away, the stretch run kicks off on Friday. A massive amount of transfer activity has gone down in that time. Eric and Evan highlight some of their faves and not-so-faves. Could Delphine Cascarino help push the San Diego Wave into playoff contention? How does Carson Pickett fit into the Orlando Pri…
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Harrison, Ben, and Kieran drop off a transfer they love, a transfer they hate, and a transfer they really wish happened. And, trivia.Por Kieran Doyle-Davis
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369 days after the USWNT crashed out of the World Cup Round of 16, they put those demons to bed, winning the gold medal at the 2024 Summer Olympics. The team managed to weather the worst half of football they had played all tournament to wear down Brazil until Mallory Swanson took Korbin Albert's through ball and ripped the Brazilian defense to pie…
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The players were dead on their feet. Lindsey Horan could barely ping a pass toward the German goal. But Naomi Girma led the defense to another sterling performance, Sophia Smith threaded a wonder goal past Ann-Katrin Berger, and the USWNT will face Brazil for the gold medal on Saturday. Was there anything besides heat and fatigue that slowed the US…
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It was brutal, but perhaps it was necessary. The USWNT scraped past Japan in the Olympics quarterfinals thanks to an extra-time wonder strike from Trinity Rodman, setting up a semifinal rematch with Germany. Were the players just too tired? Is Emma Hayes's focus on chemistry over fresh legs about to blow up in her face? Was the Japanese defense jus…
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The USWNT beat Australia 2-1 in the final round of the Olympics group stage, topping the group and heading to the quarterfinals to play Japan on Saturday. Despite all the hand-wringing about the US heading into the tournament, they finished group play with the best goal differential the best non-penalty xG differential, the most shots taken in the …
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Bang! The USWNT rained goals on Germany in a 4-1 victory, their biggest result against a FIFA top-10 side in six years. A Sophia Smith brace, a Mallory Swanson tap-in, and a Lynn Williams dagger made Germany look far worse than their world ranking would indicate. But was it all bread and circuses for Emma Hayes's side? Eric and Evan examine the tac…
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There were a couple of emphatic 3-0 wins in Group B as the Olympics tournament kicked off on Thursday. The USWNT contained Barbra Banda and put Zambia to the sword with some dazzling goals from Trinity Rodman and Mallory Swanson. What did the US do right? What can they carry over to their match against Germany on Sunday, a team that looked stout an…
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Here we go again! One year to the week that xOG launched, we find ourselves on the precipice of yet another major international tournament. The USWNT are in the Olympics Group of Death; how will they manage opposition as varied as Zambia, Germany, and Australia? Eric and Evan plunge into the US lineup, head coach Emma Hayes's tactical plans, and wh…
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The resident Canadian drops in to discuss the comparisons between Jesse Marsch and triple G, while Ben and Harrison have an astute conversation about how they think about international play analytically.Por Kieran Doyle-Davis
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The USWNT offered a lot in their 1-0 victory over Mexico on a hot and muggy day in New Jersey. Was their lack of finishing something to be concerned over? Can Rose Lavelle be counted on in the absence of an injured Catarina Macario? Will Korbin Albert ever do what it takes to stop being booed? Plus, we have a big announcement about something we can…
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Expected Own Goals: NWSL Week 16: Kansas City Current vs. Orlando Pride Was the Game of the Season
The two best teams in the NWSL had to wait until the final matchweek before the Olympics break to square off, and dear lord was it worth the wait. Brain-busting goals from Barbra Banda and Temwa Chawinga, a game-changing second yellow card for Carrie Lawrence, and a feisty, physical encounter all made this fixture an instant classic. Eric and Evan …
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Expected Own Goals: NWSL Midseason Check-In, Pt. 2: Firings, Awards and time to Buckle Up, San Diego?!
Eric and Evan debate another notable NWSL head coach sacking, hand out some Midseason Awards and go deep on Chicago's 3-0 "rout" of San Diego... was it a rout? What is even is a rout? Art by Eli Elbogen Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance SongsPor Expected Own Goals
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The boys get existential about what drives winning and how you build your organization when you have a generational coach. And, trivia.Por Kieran Doyle-Davis
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We're now (just over) halfway through the 2024 NWSL regular season, and trends are emerging! Eric and Evan uncover a host of interesting nuggets about how teams are playing this year compared to past seasons. Why on earth did the San Diego Wave "part ways" with Casey Stoney? (00:16) Where did parity go? Is it simply a byproduct of expansion? (08:37…
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ASA recently dropped the anonymous MLS analytics survey, as well as the Analytics Tier List for MLS and the guys get into who is where and how that lined up with expectation, as well as where the league is heading analytically.Por Kieran Doyle-Davis
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Gotham FC's 2-0 victory on the road against Racing Louisville was about as ugly as 2-0 victories get, but dig under the hood and you see that the preseason Shield favorites are finally coming into their own. The galacticos of Dunn, Lavelle, Davidson and Sonnett started their second game in a row together. Ella Stevens can't stop scoring. Ann-Katrin…
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The Seattle Reign got smoked by the Kansas City Current over the weekend. That such a result would be par for the course shows what kind of season Laura Harvey's crew have had. Sylvs of Shea Butter FC hopped on to talk about Reign history, the struggles of the team in the void of the team sale yet to close, and what glimmers of hope Jordyn Huitema'…
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The day has come: Emma Hayes is now the head coach of the U.S. Women's National Team. The side demolished South Korea for a combined scoreline of 7-0. Sam Staab and Lily Yohannes each earned their first caps. The law firm of Smith, Swanson, and Rodman served papers to their opponents over and over again. Alex Morgan--well, she was present. What did…
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Week 10! Two teams. Two massive victories. Two bright futures ahead? Eric and Evan ponder the meaning of Houston's staggering 3-0 home win over North Carolina and examine the implications of Racing Louisville's 1-0 away result in Chicago. H-town madness? Kentucky fried conquest? We're curious too. Art by Eli Elbogen Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dan…
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Kieran remembers Om Arvind, whose fundraiser you can donate to here: https://gofund.me/78b2bf97 . The boys join to discuss US Open Cup and MLS’ place in the larger US Soccer pyramid, Toronto FC, and Seattle. As always, trivia.Por Kieran Doyle-Davis
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Another week, another brutal Utah Royals loss. Though the scoreline was a mere 1-0 defeat on the road to the North Carolina Courage, the expansion side was under siege pretty much from minute one. Eric and Evan use the Royals' performance to figure out just how badly the season has gone for the club, and what bright spots may be on the horizon. Art…
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More transparency! More accountability! More Own Goals! Kieran guest stars as the Grim Reaper in Evan and Eric's Own Goal Bogus Journey! Art by Eli Elbogen Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance SongsPor Expected Own Goals
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Harrison, Ben, and Kieran talk Inter Miami and the Lazarus pit driven powers of Messi and friends. Messi, good or not? Important questions. And, trivia.Por Kieran Doyle-Davis
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We here at Expected Own Goals are about transparency and accountability. That's why, at the point in the season when xG stabilizes and becomes sticky, we've decided to go back and cop to our best and worst own goals from our preseason predictions. Kieran's back to face the music along with Eric and Evan. Be sure to tune in later this week for Part …
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We've been putting it off all season, but after a tough loss to the Washington Spirit and an emphatic win against Bay FC, we can put it off no longer: we must discuss the fourth-place Chicago Red Stars. Eric and Evan were joined by Lesley Ryder of Gal Pal Sports to dissect the Laura Ricketts-Lorne Donaldson era of the team, if their early-season su…
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